Giana Erminio v Alcione prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Giana ErminioDrawAlcione

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Giana Erminio 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Giana Erminio just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Giana Erminio 36%, draw 32%, Alcione 32%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Giana Erminio v AlcioneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the plans

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Giana Erminio win36%

Draw32%

Alcione win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 12

VenueStadio Citta di Gorgonzola

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Giana Erminio

Alcione

12Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Alcione	11	+1	15
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · giana erminio winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Giana Erminio a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. The market has not priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Giana Erminio v Alcione~~1.04 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 15~~18 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	US	MARKET	GAP
Giana Erminio win	36%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Alcione win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Giana Erminio or draw	68%	–	–
Giana Erminio clean sheet	39%	–	–
Alcione clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market has not priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.3%

0123450 14.3 12.3 6.2 2.0 1 13.5 13.9 6.4 2.1 2 7.4 7.0 3.3 3 2.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Giana Erminio down, Alcione across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Giana Erminio at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alcione away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Giana Erminio, 0.96 for Alcione. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ALC 1–1 GIA · GIA 1–1 ALC · ALC 2–2 GIA · GIA 0–2 ALC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

GIANA ERMINIO

DDDDDW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

ALCIONE

LDDDWL0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	11	+12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	+10	22
3	Trento	10	+10	20
4	Treviso	11	+4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
7	Alcione	11	+1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	−5	12
14	Novara	10	−4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	−6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4