Folgore Caratese v Treviso prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Folgore Caratese 0–2 Treviso TREVISO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Treviso win~~35%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.634

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.552

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Treviso win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Treviso was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–30–35
1′KICK-OFF Folgore Caratese v Treviso
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Folgore Caratese
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Folgore Caratese win 31%)
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Folgore Caratese
45′SECOND HALF Folgore Caratese 0–1 Treviso
46′We published Treviso at 35%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 7–21–73
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 7–21–73
46′A goal for Treviso on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–73
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Folgore Caratese 0–1 Treviso
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Treviso win: 35% at kick-off, 73% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Treviso win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Folgore Caratese · On: A. Vacca · Off: A. Tessiore
48′HALF-TIME Folgore Caratese 0–1 Treviso
53′We published Treviso at 35%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Treviso win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
61′We published Treviso at 35%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Folgore Caratese 0–2 Treviso
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Treviso win: 35% at kick-off, 96% now
62′Treviso score on 62′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Treviso
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Folgore Caratese · On: E. Bellia · Off: T. Duca
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Folgore Caratese · On: F. Di Dio · Off: F. Minerva
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Treviso · On: T. Brevi · Off: F. Romeo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Folgore Caratese · On: K. Mezsargs · Off: S. Spalluto
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Treviso · On: D. Liotti · Off: F. Ciuferri
82′We published Treviso at 35%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Treviso · On: C. Mellino · Off: R. Gucher
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Treviso · On: D. Cappelletti · Off: A. Maestrelli
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Treviso
95′Full time, 0–2. We called Treviso at 35% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Folgore Caratese 0–2 Treviso
FTFolgore Caratese 0–2 Treviso · Treviso win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Treviso just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Folgore Caratese 35%, draw 30%, Treviso 35%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Folgore Caratese v TrevisoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Folgore Caratese win35%

Draw30%

Treviso win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueAlbinoLeffe

RefereeF. Pacella

Line-ups

Folgore Caratese

Treviso

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Folgore Caratese

Treviso

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Treviso	9	+1	13
18	Folgore Caratese	9	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Folgore Caratese

Formation not confirmed

63 M. Sarr

29 F. Minerva

19 T. Duca

21 E. Gega

43 A. Bassino

11 M. Balzano

92 A. Tessiore

6 E. Ndoj

8 F. Castellano

99 F. D'Amico

9 S. Spalluto

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Salvalaggio

22 · T. Facchini

24 · E. Bellia

28 · L. Pedicillo

7 · S. Cester

80 · F. Di Dio

18 · M. Ambrosini

72 · M. Vignoli

61 · A. Santarcangelo

77 · K. Mezsargs

10 · A. Vacca

Treviso

Formation not confirmed

30 T. Nobile

21 M. Ceccacci

13 A. Maestrelli

5 D. Bove

2 A. Brigati

4 G. Rossi

27 R. Gucher

25 F. Romeo

10 F. Ciuferri

17 L. Paganini

9 C. Tommasini

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · P. Leonardelli

8 · D. Cappelletti

94 · D. Liotti

11 · C. Mellino

44 · F. Guiyong

7 · T. Brevi

76 · A. Lombardi

31 · C. Mbengue

78 · D. Ndulue

20 · D. Luderin

12 · N. Veronese

Our number · treviso winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

35% The market39%

Us35%

~~Market~~39%

We make Treviso a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Folgore Caratese v Treviso~~1.10 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 13~~18 v 7

~~The market · Treviso win~~39% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Treviso win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Folgore Caratese win	35%	30%	+5
Draw	30%	30%	0
Treviso win	35%	39%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Folgore Caratese or draw	65%	61%	+4
Folgore Caratese clean sheet	33%	–	–
Treviso clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.9 11.6 6.8 2.5 1 11.5 13.8 7.3 2.7 2 6.7 7.2 4.0 3 2.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Folgore Caratese down, Treviso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,043 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Folgore Caratese at home: 1.25 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Treviso away: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Folgore Caratese, 1.11 for Treviso. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FOL 2–0 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

FOLGORE CARATESE

LDDWLL2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

TREVISO

WDDWDL2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	9	+9	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Lecco	10	+3	13
7	Treviso	9	+1	13
8	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
9	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
10	Alcione	9	−1	12
11	Lumezzane	9	−1	12
12	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
14	Novara	9	−4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
16	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
17	Athletic Carpi	9	−8	6
18	Folgore Caratese	9	−4	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4