Dolomiti Bellunesi v Trento prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–3 Trento TRENTO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trento win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.441

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.329

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trento win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Trento 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 26–28–46
1′KICK-OFF Dolomiti Bellunesi v Trento
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Trento
16′We said Trento at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 9–17–74
16′Trento find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–17–74
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–1 Trento
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Trento win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
21′We said Trento at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
25′We said Trento at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–2 Trento
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Trento win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
27′A goal for Trento on 26′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–93
30′M. Garetto scores for Trento on 25′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
30′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: N. Lewis · Off: M. Saccani
34′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: M. Kowalski · Off: N. Trabucchi
42′We said Trento at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
45′SECOND HALF Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–2 Trento
49′HALF-TIME Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–2 Trento
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Trento win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
60′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Trento · On: A. Mehic · Off: M. Garetto
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Trento · On: A. Sodero · Off: F. Accornero
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: Z. Beltaief · Off: L. Agosti
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: D. Sia · Off: E. Toci
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: F. Estrella Galeazzi · Off: L. Clemenza
77′We said Trento at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Trento · On: F. Caia · Off: J. I. Molina
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Trento · On: M. Fossati · Off: J. Grossi
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–3 Trento
78′Trento score on 78′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
79′77′: M. Fossati on the scoresheet for Trento, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
80′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dolomiti Bellunesi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Trento · On: A. Genco · Off: M. Ladisa
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Trento
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Dolomiti Bellunesi
93′0–3 at the end. Our 46% on Trento comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–3 Trento
FTDolomiti Bellunesi 0–3 Trento · Trento win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trento are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dolomiti Bellunesi 26%, draw 28%, Trento 46%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Dolomiti Bellunesi v TrentoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Dolomiti Bellunesi win26%

Draw28%

Trento win46%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueZugni Tauro

RefereeS. Striamo

Line-ups

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Trento

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Trento

9Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Trento	9	+7	17
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Sonzogni

27 M. Saccani

5 N. Trabucchi

23 D. Mondonico

24 N. Gobetti

7 T. Cossalter

25 R. Ba

42 L. Montenegro

8 L. Agosti

10 L. Clemenza

9 E. Toci

Coach · Andrea Bonatti

Substitutes

29 · L. Abati

94 · S. Costa

4 · N. Lewis

20 · M. Kowalski

99 · F. Estrella Galeazzi

45 · T. Zidouh

11 · D. Sia

77 · Z. Beltaief

30 · M. Morreale

49 · K. Casanova

Trento

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Barlocco

23 C. Aucelli

5 S. Kassama

18 F. Benassai

44 M. Maffei

8 G. Benedetti

80 M. Garetto

11 F. Accornero

73 J. Grossi

21 M. Ladisa

9 J. I. Molina

Coach · Luca Tabbiani

Substitutes

12 · L. Santer

22 · E. Goller

4 · A. Trainotti

27 · F. Frison

19 · Z. Muca

70 · G. Calza

6 · M. Fossati

25 · A. Mehic

14 · A. Sodero

37 · A. Genco

66 · M. Castelli

99 · F. Sartori

95 · F. Caia

Our number · trento winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Trento a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dolomiti Bellunesi v Trento~~1.01 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~14 v 5

~~The market · Trento win~~53% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trento win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dolomiti Bellunesi win	26%	19%	+7
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Trento win	46%	53%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	47%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−2
Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw	54%	47%	+7
Dolomiti Bellunesi clean sheet	25%	–	–
Trento clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.6 11.9 8.8 4.2 1 8.4 13.1 8.8 4.2 2 4.5 6.3 4.4 2.1 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dolomiti Bellunesi down, Trento across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,048 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Trento away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Dolomiti Bellunesi, 1.42 for Trento. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DOL 0–0 TRE · TRE 2–0 DOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

DOLOMITI BELLUNESI

DDLDLL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

TRENTO

DDWDDW0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
10	Lecco	10	+3	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
15	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
16	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
17	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
18	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4