Desenzano Calvina v Giana Erminio prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Desenzano CalvinaDrawGiana Erminio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Desenzano Calvina 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Desenzano Calvina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Desenzano Calvina 38%, draw 31%, Giana Erminio 32%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Desenzano Calvina v Giana ErminioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Desenzano Calvina win38%

Draw31%

Giana Erminio win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueStadio Comunale Gino Corioni

RefereeC. Zito

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Desenzano Calvina

Giana Erminio

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · desenzano calvina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Desenzano Calvina a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Desenzano Calvina v Giana Erminio~~1.12 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~11 v 18

~~The market · Desenzano Calvina win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Desenzano Calvina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Desenzano Calvina win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Giana Erminio win	32%	29%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	36%	49%	−13
Both teams to score	43%	54%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	63%	72%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	17%	28%	−11
Desenzano Calvina or draw	68%	71%	−3
Desenzano Calvina clean sheet	37%	–	–
Giana Erminio clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.8 11.4 6.0 2.0 1 12.8 13.8 6.6 2.2 2 7.5 7.4 3.7 3 2.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Desenzano Calvina down, Giana Erminio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Desenzano Calvina at home: 0.75 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Giana Erminio away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Desenzano Calvina, 1.00 for Giana Erminio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

DESENZANO CALVINA

LDDWWL1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–4

GIANA ERMINIO

DDDDDW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	11	+12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	+10	22
3	Trento	10	+10	20
4	Treviso	11	+4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
7	Alcione	11	+1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	−5	12
14	Novara	10	−4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	−6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4