Home › Football › Serie C - Girone A › Desenzano Calvina v Dolomiti Bellunesi

Desenzano Calvina v Dolomiti Bellunesi

Desenzano Calvina

2–0Full time

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Serie C - Girone A · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Desenzano Calvina 2–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi DESENZANO CALVINA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Desenzano Calvina win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Desenzano Calvina win at 45%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Desenzano Calvina 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
9′Desenzano Calvina ahead on 5′ through A. De Francesco. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
30′We said Desenzano Calvina at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
38′We said Desenzano Calvina at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
45′SECOND HALF Desenzano Calvina 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
47′SECOND HALF Desenzano Calvina 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Desenzano Calvina win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Desenzano Calvina win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Desenzano Calvina 2–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi · A. De Francesco
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Desenzano Calvina 2–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: D. Sia · Off: T. Cossalter
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: F. Estrella Galeazzi · Off: L. Clemenza
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: F. Migliardi · Off: D. Mondonico
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Dolomiti Bellunesi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: Z. Beltaief · Off: E. Toci
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Desenzano Calvina · On: L. Ubaldi · Off: C. Santini
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Desenzano Calvina · On: S. Russini · Off: A. Procaccio
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: N. Lewis · Off: N. Gobetti
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Desenzano Calvina · On: D. Andreis · Off: L. Lupano
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Desenzano Calvina · On: M. Moscati · Off: K. Biondi
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Desenzano Calvina
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Desenzano Calvina · On: P. Reggiori · Off: L. Giorgi
FTFULL TIME Desenzano Calvina 2–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
FTDesenzano Calvina 2–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi · Desenzano Calvina win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Desenzano Calvina win45%

Draw29%

Dolomiti Bellunesi win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni

Referee · M. Melloni

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Desenzano Calvina

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Minelli

70 M. Parlato

19 A. Pilati

6 T. Panelli

3 L. Giorgi

43 L. Lupano

15 A. De Francesco

77 F. Liberati

24 K. Biondi

9 C. Santini

30 A. Procaccio

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Cassin

12 · F. Bastianoni

49 · L. Baldi

20 · D. Andreis

7 · M. Moscati

8 · S. Tomaselli

93 · P. Reggiori

23 · F. Bono

96 · S. Russini

17 · S. Onofrio

34 · L. Ubaldi

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Sonzogni

27 M. Saccani

23 D. Mondonico

24 N. Gobetti

5 N. Trabucchi

42 L. Montenegro

7 T. Cossalter

25 R. Ba

20 M. Kowalski

10 L. Clemenza

9 E. Toci

Coach · Andrea Bonatti

Substitutes

29 · L. Abati

22 · F. Coan

3 · F. Migliardi

4 · N. Lewis

8 · L. Agosti

99 · F. Estrella Galeazzi

45 · T. Zidouh

11 · D. Sia

77 · Z. Beltaief

30 · M. Morreale

49 · K. Casanova

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Desenzano Calvina

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Minelli

70 M. Parlato

19 A. Pilati

6 T. Panelli

3 L. Giorgi

43 L. Lupano

15 A. De Francesco

77 F. Liberati

24 K. Biondi

9 C. Santini

30 A. Procaccio

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Cassin

12 · F. Bastianoni

49 · L. Baldi

20 · D. Andreis

7 · M. Moscati

8 · S. Tomaselli

93 · P. Reggiori

23 · F. Bono

96 · S. Russini

17 · S. Onofrio

34 · L. Ubaldi

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Sonzogni

27 M. Saccani

23 D. Mondonico

24 N. Gobetti

5 N. Trabucchi

42 L. Montenegro

7 T. Cossalter

25 R. Ba

20 M. Kowalski

10 L. Clemenza

9 E. Toci

Coach · Andrea Bonatti

Substitutes

29 · L. Abati

22 · F. Coan

3 · F. Migliardi

4 · N. Lewis

8 · L. Agosti

99 · F. Estrella Galeazzi

45 · T. Zidouh

11 · D. Sia

77 · Z. Beltaief

30 · M. Morreale

49 · K. Casanova

Our number · desenzano calvina winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Desenzano Calvina a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · desenzano calvina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Desenzano Calvina win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Dolomiti Bellunesi win	26%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−3
Desenzano Calvina or draw	74%	73%	+2
Desenzano Calvina clean sheet	40%	–	–
Dolomiti Bellunesi clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.2 9.1 4.5 1 13.2 13.3 5.9 2 9.2 8.4 3.9 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Desenzano Calvina down, Dolomiti Bellunesi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,032 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Desenzano Calvina at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Dolomiti Bellunesi away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Desenzano Calvina, 0.93 for Dolomiti Bellunesi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

DESENZANO CALVINA

LWLDDW0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

DOLOMITI BELLUNESI

WDDLDL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	8	+10	21
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
4	Trento	8	+6	14
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	8	+3	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	+2	12
8	Alcione	8	−1	11
9	Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	0	10
10	Desenzano Calvina	8	−1	10
11	Novara	8	−2	9
12	Lecco	8	−2	9
13	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
14	Lumezzane	7	−2	8
15	Pergolettese	8	−2	8
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	7	−6	6
18	Athletic Carpi	8	−7	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3