Cittadella v Arzignano Valchiampo prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Cittadella 1–0 Arzignano Valchiampo CITTADELLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cittadella win~~44%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.276

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cittadella win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cittadella was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Cittadella v Arzignano Valchiampo
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Arzignano Valchiampo
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cittadella win 37%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Cittadella win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Cittadella 0–0 Arzignano Valchiampo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cittadella · On: F. Amatucci · Off: M. Sangalli
46′SECOND HALF Cittadella 0–0 Arzignano Valchiampo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cittadella · On: A. Redolfi · Off: F. Toffanin
50′We said Cittadella at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–48–22
58′We said Cittadella at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–21
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Cittadella
63′Cittadella score on 62′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Cittadella 1–0 Arzignano Valchiampo
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Cittadella win: 44% at kick-off, 81% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Cittadella win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 54%)
64′We published Cittadella at 44%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cittadella · On: J. Ekuban · Off: D. Mensah
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Cittadella win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: M. Penta · Off: M. J. Fosu
71′We published Cittadella at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cittadella · On: M. Fabbro · Off: M. Antonucci
79′We published Cittadella at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: E. Campesan · Off: E. Bernardi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: L. Castegnaro · Off: F. Cariolato
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Cittadella · On: A. Zilio · Off: B. Martella
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Cittadella win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
86′We published Cittadella at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: J. Romio · Off: A. Milillo
FTFULL TIME Cittadella 1–0 Arzignano Valchiampo
FTCittadella 1–0 Arzignano Valchiampo · Cittadella win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cittadella are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cittadella 44%, draw 28%, Arzignano Valchiampo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cittadella v Arzignano ValchiampoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Cittadella win44%

Draw28%

Arzignano Valchiampo win28%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

RefereeM. Dini

Line-ups

Cittadella

Arzignano Valchiampo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cittadella

Arzignano Valchiampo

9Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cittadella

Formation not confirmed

69 A. Zanellati

19 F. D'Alessio

24 M. Gobbato

4 F. Toffanin

87 B. Martella

43 A. Ndrecka

33 G. Frisenna

20 M. Sangalli

18 E. Ignatov

9 D. Mensah

10 M. Antonucci

Coach · Roberto Musso

Substitutes

2 · L. Maniero

22 · C. Sommacal

14 · C. Crialese

55 · A. Redolfi

36 · A. Zilio

8 · F. Amatucci

7 · E. Anastasia

16 · J. Ekuban

99 · M. Fabbro

71 · A. Ceccarelli

Arzignano Valchiampo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Vannucchi

31 E. De Santis

57 A. Milillo

23 E. Bernardi

2 M. J. Fosu

30 C. Gatti

16 M. Moretti

13 F. Cariolato

6 E. Lakti

9 A. Mattioli

32 N. Nanni

Coach · Daniele Di Donato

Substitutes

22 · F. Manfrin

12 · E. Contarato

5 · E. Campesan

26 · V. Gambardella

21 · D. Finizio

27 · A. Nenna

15 · M. Gostimirovic

11 · M. Penta

17 · L. Castegnaro

10 · J. Romio

Our number · cittadella winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

44% The market57%

Us44%

~~Market~~57%

We make Cittadella a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cittadella v Arzignano Valchiampo~~1.37 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 17~~1 v 4

~~The market · Cittadella win~~57% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cittadella win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cittadella win	44%	57%	−13
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Arzignano Valchiampo win	28%	18%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
Cittadella or draw	72%	82%	−10
Cittadella clean sheet	35%	–	–
Arzignano Valchiampo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.7 8.8 4.9 1 11.7 13.2 6.6 2.3 2 8.3 8.6 4.5 3 3.8 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cittadella down, Arzignano Valchiampo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,048 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cittadella at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arzignano Valchiampo away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Cittadella, 1.05 for Arzignano Valchiampo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CIT 2–2 ARZ · ARZ 1–0 CIT · CIT 1–0 ARZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

CITTADELLA

WWWWLW2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

ARZIGNANO VALCHIAMPO

LWWWDW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
10	Lecco	10	+3	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
15	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
16	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
17	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
18	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4