Athletic Carpi v Lumezzane

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lumezzane win at 38%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lumezzane 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
3. 1′KICK-OFF Athletic Carpi v Lumezzane
4. 24′We said Lumezzane at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
5. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Athletic Carpi 0–1 Lumezzane
6. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
7. 25′A goal for Lumezzane on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
8. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
9. 29′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Lumezzane · On: M. Ndiaye · Off: S. J. Nwachukwu
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
11. 40′We said Lumezzane at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
12. 45′SECOND HALF Athletic Carpi 0–1 Lumezzane
13. 46′HALF-TIME Athletic Carpi 0–1 Lumezzane
14. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Athletic Carpi 1–1 Lumezzane
15. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 30% now
16. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Lumezzane win 30%)
17. 49′Athletic Carpi score on 49′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–42–30
18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
19. 58′We said Lumezzane at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 25–48–26
20. 63′We said Lumezzane at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
21. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Athletic Carpi · On: M. Forapani · Off: A. Astrologo
22. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lumezzane · On: G. Monachello · Off: T. Ebone
23. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Athletic Carpi
24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Athletic Carpi · On: A. Sall · Off: V. Vitale
25. 73′We said Lumezzane at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 17–65–18
26. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
27. 78′We said Lumezzane at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
28. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lumezzane · On: L. Menegazzo · Off: S. D'Agostino
29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lumezzane · On: A. Ghillani · Off: S. Diodato
30. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lumezzane · On: A. Pavanati · Off: M. Rocca
31. 81′49′: M. Figoli on the scoresheet for Athletic Carpi, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 11–78–11
32. 82′We said Lumezzane at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–80–10
33. 83′We said Lumezzane at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
35. 86′We said Lumezzane at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 93–6–0
36. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Athletic Carpi 2–1 Lumezzane
37. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Athletic Carpi win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
38. 87′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
39. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Athletic Carpi · On: G. Vaglica · Off: F. Puletto
40. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Athletic Carpi · On: N. Bagatti · Off: T. Cecotti
41. 88′Athletic Carpi find the net on 87′. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
42. 96′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
43. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Athletic Carpi 3–1 Lumezzane
44. 97′A goal for Athletic Carpi on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
45. 97′3–1 at the end. Our 38% on Lumezzane misses, and the record keeps it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
46. FTFULL TIME Athletic Carpi 3–1 Lumezzane
47. FTAthletic Carpi 3–1 Lumezzane · Lumezzane win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.