Arzignano Valchiampo v Novara prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arzignano ValchiampoDrawNovara

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Arzignano Valchiampo 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arzignano Valchiampo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arzignano Valchiampo 42%, draw 29%, Novara 29%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Arzignano Valchiampo v NovaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Arzignano Valchiampo win42%

Draw29%

Novara win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueTommaso Dal Molin

RefereeM. Cavacini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arzignano Valchiampo

Novara

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
14	Novara	10	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arzignano valchiampo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make Arzignano Valchiampo a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arzignano Valchiampo v Novara~~1.30 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~6 v 14

~~The market · Arzignano Valchiampo win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arzignano Valchiampo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arzignano Valchiampo win	42%	39%	+3
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Novara win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
Arzignano Valchiampo or draw	71%	69%	+2
Arzignano Valchiampo clean sheet	37%	–	–
Novara clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.7 9.5 5.1 1 12.3 13.5 6.5 2.2 2 8.3 8.3 4.2 3 3.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arzignano Valchiampo down, Novara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arzignano Valchiampo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Novara away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Arzignano Valchiampo, 1.01 for Novara. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ARZ 1–1 NOV · NOV 1–0 ARZ · NOV 1–0 ARZ · ARZ 0–2 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

ARZIGNANO VALCHIAMPO

WWWDWL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

NOVARA

DDLWLD0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	11	+12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	+10	22
3	Trento	10	+10	20
4	Treviso	11	+4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
7	Alcione	11	+1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	−5	12
14	Novara	10	−4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	−6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4