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Arzignano Valchiampo v Juventus U23

Arzignano Valchiampo

2–1Full time

Juventus U23

Serie C - Girone A · SAT 10 OCT · Tommaso Dal Molin

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Arzignano Valchiampo 2–1 Juventus U23 ARZIGNANO VALCHIAMPO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arzignano Valchiampo win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.538

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arzignano Valchiampo win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arzignano Valchiampo 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Arzignano Valchiampo v Juventus U23
4′Little has changed for our model: Arzignano Valchiampo 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Arzignano Valchiampo 1–0 Juventus U23
25′E. De Santis scores for Arzignano Valchiampo on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–7
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Arzignano Valchiampo win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
26′E. De Santis scores for Arzignano Valchiampo on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–7
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Arzignano Valchiampo win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Arzignano Valchiampo win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Juventus U23
45′HALF-TIME Arzignano Valchiampo 1–0 Juventus U23
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Arzignano Valchiampo win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
46′SECOND HALF Arzignano Valchiampo 1–0 Juventus U23
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: N. Nanni · Off: M. J. Fosu
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Arzignano Valchiampo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: L. Castegnaro · Off: M. Penta
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Juventus U23
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Juventus U23 · On: D. Elimoghale · Off: L. Amaradio
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Juventus U23 · On: S. Guerra · Off: N. Rizzo
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Arzignano Valchiampo 2–0 Juventus U23
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Juventus U23
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Juventus U23 · On: J. Grelaud · Off: F. Pagnucco
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Juventus U23 · On: P. Mazur · Off: D. Ripani
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Arzignano Valchiampo 2–1 Juventus U23
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: E. Campesan · Off: E. De Santis Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Arzignano Valchiampo · On: J. Romio · Off: A. Mattioli
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Juventus U23 · On: S. Turco · Off: F. Savio
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Arzignano Valchiampo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Juventus U23
FTFULL TIME Arzignano Valchiampo 2–1 Juventus U23
FTArzignano Valchiampo 2–1 Juventus U23 · Arzignano Valchiampo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arzignano Valchiampo win48%

Draw27%

Juventus U23 win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Tommaso Dal Molin

Referee · B. Tierno

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arzignano Valchiampo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Vannucchi

31 E. De Santis

57 A. Milillo

75 M. Bassi

2 M. J. Fosu

30 C. Gatti

16 M. Moretti

13 F. Cariolato

6 E. Lakti

11 M. Penta

9 A. Mattioli

Coach · Daniele Di Donato

Substitutes

22 · F. Manfrin

12 · E. Contarato

5 · E. Campesan

26 · V. Gambardella

21 · D. Finizio

27 · A. Nenna

15 · M. Gostimirovic

17 · L. Castegnaro

32 · N. Nanni

10 · J. Romio

Juventus U23

Formation not confirmed

40 R. Radu

15 F. Savio

2 N. Rizzo

38 C. Corradi

18 M. Brugarello

16 F. Pagnucco

11 L. Amaradio

5 F. Macca

26 D. Ripani

21 A. Merola

9 A. Durmisi

Coach · Massimo Brambilla

Substitutes

1 · M. Fuscaldo

22 · S. Mangiapoco

44 · A. Montero

13 · F. Verde

4 · S. van Aarle

34 · S. Turco

24 · P. Mazur

48 · J. Grelaud

20 · E. Keutgen

14 · D. Elimoghale

17 · S. Guerra

27 · F. Leone

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arzignano Valchiampo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Vannucchi

31 E. De Santis

57 A. Milillo

75 M. Bassi

2 M. J. Fosu

30 C. Gatti

16 M. Moretti

13 F. Cariolato

6 E. Lakti

11 M. Penta

9 A. Mattioli

Coach · Daniele Di Donato

Substitutes

22 · F. Manfrin

12 · E. Contarato

5 · E. Campesan

26 · V. Gambardella

21 · D. Finizio

27 · A. Nenna

15 · M. Gostimirovic

17 · L. Castegnaro

32 · N. Nanni

10 · J. Romio

Juventus U23

Formation not confirmed

40 R. Radu

15 F. Savio

2 N. Rizzo

38 C. Corradi

18 M. Brugarello

16 F. Pagnucco

11 L. Amaradio

5 F. Macca

26 D. Ripani

21 A. Merola

9 A. Durmisi

Coach · Massimo Brambilla

Substitutes

1 · M. Fuscaldo

22 · S. Mangiapoco

44 · A. Montero

13 · F. Verde

4 · S. van Aarle

34 · S. Turco

24 · P. Mazur

48 · J. Grelaud

20 · E. Keutgen

14 · D. Elimoghale

17 · S. Guerra

27 · F. Leone

Our number · arzignano valchiampo winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Arzignano Valchiampo a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · arzignano valchiampo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arzignano Valchiampo win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Juventus U23 win	25%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	44%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	68%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	25%	0
Arzignano Valchiampo or draw	75%	70%	+4
Arzignano Valchiampo clean sheet	36%	–	–
Juventus U23 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 7.6 4.2 1 11.4 12.6 6.2 2.2 2 9.0 9.0 4.6 3 4.6 4.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arzignano Valchiampo down, Juventus U23 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,032 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arzignano Valchiampo at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Juventus U23 away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Arzignano Valchiampo, 1.03 for Juventus U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JUV 0–1 ARZ · ARZ 2–1 JUV

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

ARZIGNANO VALCHIAMPO

LLWWWD1–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

JUVENTUS U23

DDLLLD3–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	8	+10	21
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
4	Trento	8	+6	14
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	8	+3	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	+2	12
8	Alcione	8	−1	11
9	Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	0	10
10	Desenzano Calvina	8	−1	10
11	Novara	8	−2	9
12	Lecco	8	−2	9
13	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
14	Lumezzane	7	−2	8
15	Pergolettese	8	−2	8
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	7	−6	6
18	Athletic Carpi	8	−7	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3