Alcione v Desenzano Calvina prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Alcione 4–1 Desenzano Calvina ALCIONE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alcione win~~37%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.597

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.570

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alcione win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Alcione was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–33–30
1′KICK-OFF Alcione v Desenzano Calvina
2′We published Alcione at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
2′Alcione find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–11
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Alcione 1–0 Desenzano Calvina
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Alcione win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
17′We published Alcione at 37%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Alcione 2–0 Desenzano Calvina
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Alcione win: 37% at kick-off, 91% now
18′A goal for Alcione on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
38′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Alcione · On: E. Sadotti · Off: E. Lopes
41′We published Alcione at 37%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Alcione 3–0 Desenzano Calvina
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Alcione win: 37% at kick-off, 99% now
42′Alcione score on 42′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Alcione 3–0 Desenzano Calvina
46′HALF-TIME Alcione 3–0 Desenzano Calvina
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Desenzano Calvina · On: L. Ubaldi · Off: F. Liberati
53′We published Alcione at 37%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′4 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Alcione 3–1 Desenzano Calvina
59′Desenzano Calvina find the net on 59′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Alcione
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' A. Rolfini · Alcione
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Alcione 4–1 Desenzano Calvina
69′A goal for Alcione on 69′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
70′F. Morselli scores for Alcione on 68′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' M. Moscati · Desenzano Calvina
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Alcione
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alcione · On: A. Braida · Off: N. Trapani
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alcione · On: L. Zini · Off: A. Rolfini
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Desenzano Calvina · On: S. Tomaselli · Off: M. Parlato
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Desenzano Calvina · On: P. Reggiori · Off: A. Pilati
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Desenzano Calvina · On: L. Baldi · Off: L. Giorgi
84′6 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Alcione 5–1 Desenzano Calvina
86′A goal for Alcione on 85′. 4–1 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Alcione · On: G. Puzzoli · Off: F. Morselli
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Alcione · On: F. Gallazzi · Off: R. Rebaudo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Desenzano Calvina · On: S. Onofrio · Off: C. Santini
86′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Alcione
94′Full time, 4–1. We called Alcione at 37% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Alcione 4–1 Desenzano Calvina
FTAlcione 4–1 Desenzano Calvina · Alcione win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Alcione just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcione 37%, draw 33%, Desenzano Calvina 30%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Alcione v Desenzano CalvinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alcione win37%

Draw33%

Desenzano Calvina win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueStadio Ernesto Breda

RefereeM. Costa

Line-ups

Alcione

Desenzano Calvina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcione

Desenzano Calvina

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
10	Alcione	9	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alcione

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Raffaelli

3 P. Chierichetti

25 F. Pirola

4 A. Miculi

19 N. Trapani

18 E. Lopes

16 J. Lanzi

30 R. Rebaudo

10 J. Pitou

11 F. Morselli

14 A. Rolfini

Coach · Giovanni Cusatis

Substitutes

69 · L. Nava

6 · D. Ciappellano

5 · E. Sadotti

94 · F. Bertolotti

2 · S. Baldacchino

8 · M. Muroni

23 · G. Galli

27 · M. Lione

67 · T. Mocchi

81 · F. Gallazzi

56 · D. Andreassi

17 · A. Braida

31 · M. Marconi

98 · L. Zini

20 · G. Puzzoli

Desenzano Calvina

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Minelli

70 M. Parlato

19 A. Pilati

6 T. Panelli

3 L. Giorgi

43 L. Lupano

7 M. Moscati

77 F. Liberati

24 K. Biondi

9 C. Santini

30 A. Procaccio

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Cassin

12 · F. Bastianoni

49 · L. Baldi

20 · D. Andreis

15 · A. De Francesco

8 · S. Tomaselli

93 · P. Reggiori

23 · F. Bono

33 · E. Dos Santos

17 · S. Onofrio

34 · L. Ubaldi

Our number · alcione winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market38%

Us37%

~~Market~~38%

We make Alcione a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcione v Desenzano Calvina~~1.03 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~10 v 8

~~The market · Alcione win~~38% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alcione win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcione win	37%	38%	−1
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Desenzano Calvina win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	30%	45%	−15
Both teams to score	38%	51%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	58%	70%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	13%	25%	−12
Alcione or draw	70%	69%	+1
Alcione clean sheet	41%	–	–
Desenzano Calvina clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 12.5 5.9 1 14.3 13.9 6.0 2 7.6 6.8 3.1 3 2.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcione down, Desenzano Calvina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,045 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alcione at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Desenzano Calvina away: 1.00 scored, 0.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Alcione, 0.90 for Desenzano Calvina. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALC 2–1 DES · DES 1–1 ALC · ALC 1–0 DES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

ALCIONE

WDLDDD3–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

DESENZANO CALVINA

WLDDWW2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	9	+9	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Lecco	10	+3	13
8	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
9	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
10	Alcione	9	−1	12
11	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
12	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
14	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
15	Novara	9	−4	9
16	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
17	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
18	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4