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Alcione v Athletic Carpi

Alcione

1–2Full time

Athletic Carpi

Serie C - Girone A · SAT 24 OCT · Stadio Ernesto Breda

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Alcione 1–2 Athletic Carpi ALCIONE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alcione win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.824

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alcione win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alcione 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Alcione v Athletic Carpi
22′We said Alcione at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Alcione 1–0 Athletic Carpi
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Alcione win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
23′Alcione find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
24′We said Alcione at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Alcione win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Athletic Carpi
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Alcione 1–1 Athletic Carpi
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Alcione win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
41′A goal for Athletic Carpi on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–40–24
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Alcione win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Alcione win 76%)
45′HALF-TIME Alcione 1–1 Athletic Carpi
45′SECOND HALF Alcione 1–1 Athletic Carpi
48′We said Alcione at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–22
59′We said Alcione at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Alcione win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Athletic Carpi · On: A. Sall · Off: V. Vitale
67′We said Alcione at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
74′We said Alcione at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
75′We said Alcione at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
75′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–16–82
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Alcione 1–2 Athletic Carpi
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Alcione win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Athletic Carpi win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 68%)
77′Athletic Carpi score on 76′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Alcione · On: M. Muroni · Off: E. Lopes
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Alcione · On: A. Braida · Off: J. Pitou
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Alcione · On: G. Puzzoli · Off: R. Rebaudo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Athletic Carpi · On: N. Bagatti · Off: F. Puletto
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Alcione · On: L. Zini · Off: J. Lanzi
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Athletic Carpi · On: T. Carcani · Off: M. Montipo
93′1–2 at the end. Our 46% on Alcione misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Alcione 1–2 Athletic Carpi
FTAlcione 1–2 Athletic Carpi · Alcione win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alcione are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcione 46%, draw 28%, Athletic Carpi 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Alcione v Athletic CarpiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Alcione win46%

Draw28%

Athletic Carpi win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueStadio Ernesto Breda

RefereeA. Bortolussi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcione

Athletic Carpi

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
16	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alcione winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Alcione a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcione v Athletic Carpi~~1.41 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~7 v 16

~~The market · Alcione win~~46% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alcione win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcione win	46%	46%	0
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Athletic Carpi win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	55%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
Alcione or draw	73%	73%	0
Alcione clean sheet	37%	–	–
Athletic Carpi clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.6 8.4 4.6 1 11.9 13.0 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.8 4.4 3 4.2 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcione down, Athletic Carpi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,052 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alcione at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Athletic Carpi away: 1.00 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Alcione, 1.01 for Athletic Carpi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALC 6–1 ATH · ATH 1–0 ALC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

ALCIONE

DLDDDW2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–1

ATHLETIC CARPI

DDLLLW2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	10	+13	27
2	Trento	10	+10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	+9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	−5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4