Albinoleffe v Pergolettese prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlbinoleffeDrawPergolettese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Albinoleffe 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Albinoleffe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Albinoleffe 45%, draw 28%, Pergolettese 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Albinoleffe v PergoletteseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Albinoleffe win45%

Draw28%

Pergolettese win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 12

VenueAlbinoLeffe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albinoleffe

Pergolettese

12Days since last match12

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · albinoleffe winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Albinoleffe a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albinoleffe v Pergolettese~~1.40 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albinoleffe win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Pergolettese win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Albinoleffe or draw	73%	–	–
Albinoleffe clean sheet	37%	–	–
Pergolettese clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.7 8.5 4.6 1 11.9 13.1 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.7 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albinoleffe down, Pergolettese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Albinoleffe at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pergolettese away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Albinoleffe, 1.01 for Pergolettese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALB 3–0 PER · PER 0–0 ALB · PER 1–2 ALB · ALB 3–0 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

ALBINOLEFFE

LWDWLD1–2 · 5–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

PERGOLETTESE

DDDDWW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	10	+13	27
2	Trento	10	+10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	+9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	−5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4