Albinoleffe v Novara prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Albinoleffe 2–2 Novara ALBINOLEFFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Albinoleffe win~~42%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.773

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.754

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Albinoleffe win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Albinoleffe 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
1′KICK-OFF Albinoleffe v Novara
16′We said Albinoleffe at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–60
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Albinoleffe 0–1 Novara
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Albinoleffe win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Novara win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Albinoleffe win 17%)
17′16′: D. Dell'Erba on the scoresheet for Novara, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–60
23′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Albinoleffe · On: B. Barba · Off: M. Gusu
26′We said Albinoleffe at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' E. Zambataro · Novara
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Albinoleffe win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′SECOND HALF Albinoleffe 0–1 Novara
46′We said Albinoleffe at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
47′HALF-TIME Albinoleffe 0–1 Novara
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Albinoleffe · On: F. Faggi · Off: A. Lombardi
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Novara · On: E. Lanini · Off: C. da Graca
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Albinoleffe 1–1 Novara
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Albinoleffe win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Novara win 24%)
49′Albinoleffe find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–45–24
52′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–23–69
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Albinoleffe 1–2 Novara
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Albinoleffe win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Novara win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
53′A goal for Novara on 53′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–70
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Novara
64′We said Albinoleffe at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Novara · On: N. Ledonne · Off: D. Dell'Erba
64′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Novara
65′Novara are down to ten from 65′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 4–20–76
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Novara
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Novara · On: L. D'Alessio · Off: E. Zambataro
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Novara · On: R. Arboscello · Off: R. Collodel
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Albinoleffe win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Albinoleffe · On: S. Sassi · Off: A. Orfei
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Albinoleffe · On: S. Ciko · Off: M. Agostinelli
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 8–86–6
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Novara
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Albinoleffe 2–2 Novara
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Albinoleffe win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Novara win 6%)
86′Albinoleffe score on 85′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 7–88–5
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Albinoleffe
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Novara · On: M. Nichetti · Off: M. Romano
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Albinoleffe
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Albinoleffe · On: L. Stanzani · Off: J. Desogus
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Albinoleffe win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
96′2–2 at the end. Our 42% on Albinoleffe misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Albinoleffe 2–2 Novara
FTAlbinoleffe 2–2 Novara · Albinoleffe win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Albinoleffe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Albinoleffe 42%, draw 29%, Novara 29%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Albinoleffe v NovaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Albinoleffe win42%

Draw29%

Novara win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueAlbinoLeffe

RefereeS. Gavini

Line-ups

Albinoleffe

Novara

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albinoleffe

Novara

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
15	Novara	9	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Albinoleffe

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Michielin

18 A. Orfei

16 M. Gusu

4 S. Potop

23 E. Sottini

77 L. Ballo

19 M. Agostinelli

8 A. Lombardi

5 A. Mandelli

11 G. Sali

70 J. Desogus

Coach · Marco Zaffaroni

Substitutes

12 · G. Baldi

1 · F. Generali

3 · G. Sciacca

7 · A. Garattoni

6 · G. Boloca

2 · B. Barba

32 · F. Faggi

21 · F. Franchini

17 · S. Ciko

14 · S. Sassi

71 · A. Colombi

24 · T. Simonelli

9 · L. Stanzani

Novara

Formation not confirmed

33 F. Brancolini

28 A. Cannavaro

5 F. Lorenzini

15 O. Khailoti

70 A. Valdesi

99 G. Basso

19 R. Collodel

14 M. Romano

23 E. Zambataro

8 D. Dell'Erba

20 C. da Graca

Coach · Manuel Iori

Substitutes

1 · E. Boseggia

22 · P. Anfossi

58 · M. Miceli

71 · L. D'Alessio

31 · J. Canneti

32 · M. De Nicolo

6 · M. Nichetti

36 · R. Arboscello

11 · N. Ledonne

7 · E. Lanini

39 · L. Chieregato

Our number · albinoleffe winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make Albinoleffe a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albinoleffe v Novara~~1.33 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~9 v 15

~~The market · Albinoleffe win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Albinoleffe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albinoleffe win	42%	39%	+3
Draw	29%	29%	0
Novara win	29%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	24%	−2
Albinoleffe or draw	71%	68%	+3
Albinoleffe clean sheet	35%	–	–
Novara clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.0 9.2 5.2 1 11.6 13.4 6.7 2.4 2 8.1 8.4 4.5 3 3.6 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albinoleffe down, Novara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,045 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Albinoleffe at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Novara away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Albinoleffe, 1.06 for Novara. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NOV 2–2 ALB · ALB 3–2 NOV · ALB 1–1 NOV · NOV 2–0 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

ALBINOLEFFE

DLWDWL0–0 · 1–2 · 5–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

NOVARA

LDDLWL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	9	+9	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Lecco	10	+3	13
8	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
9	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
10	Alcione	9	−1	12
11	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
12	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
14	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
15	Novara	9	−4	9
16	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
17	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
18	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4