Virtus Entella v Mantova

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Virtus Entella win at 41%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Virtus Entella was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–30
3. 1′KICK-OFF Virtus Entella v Mantova
4. 10′We said Virtus Entella at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–22–60
5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Virtus Entella 0–1 Mantova
6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Virtus Entella win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Mantova win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Virtus Entella win 40%)
8. 11′Mantova score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–22–60
9. 14′12′: Ettore Gliozzi on the scoresheet for Mantova, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–22–60
10. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Virtus Entella 1–1 Mantova
11. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Virtus Entella win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
12. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Virtus Entella win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Mantova win 60%)
13. 17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Virtus Entella
14. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Virtus Entella win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
15. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Mantova win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Virtus Entella win 40%)
16. 28′We said Virtus Entella at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
17. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–23–63
18. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Andrea Tiritiello · Virtus Entella
19. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Virtus Entella win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
20. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Tommaso Del Lungo · Mantova
21. 45′SECOND HALF Virtus Entella 0–1 Mantova
22. 47′We said Virtus Entella at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
23. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Francesco Modesto · Mantova
24. 49′HALF-TIME Virtus Entella 0–1 Mantova
25. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' M. Alborghetti · Virtus Entella
26. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Stefano Cella · Mantova
27. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mantova · On: Rachid Kouda · Off: Lorenzo Ignacchiti
28. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Mantova · On: David·Wieser · Off: Tommaso Del Lungo
29. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Virtus Entella · On: Marwane Kritta · Off: Luca Parodi
30. 65′We said Virtus Entella at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
31. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Virtus Entella · On: M Tirelli · Off: Giacomo Corona
32. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Virtus Entella · On: Tommaso Annoni · Off: Niccolo Squizzato
33. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' M Tirelli · Virtus Entella
34. 78′13 shots for Virtus Entella, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 1–13–85
35. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Virtus Entella win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
36. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mantova · On: matteo spinacce · Off: Ettore Gliozzi
37. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mantova · On: Davide Bragantini · Off: Francesco Ruocco
38. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Virtus Entella · On: Luigi Cuppone · Off: Andrea Franzoni
39. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Virtus Entella · On: Luca Vignali · Off: M. Alborghetti
40. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' matteo spinacce · Mantova
41. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Bodin Tomašević · Mantova
42. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Luigi Cuppone · Virtus Entella
43. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Simone Trimboli · Mantova
44. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Leonardo Benedetti · Virtus Entella
45. 94′Full time, 0–1. We called Virtus Entella at 41% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
46. FTFULL TIME Virtus Entella 0–1 Mantova
47. FTVirtus Entella 0–1 Mantova · Virtus Entella win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.