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Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia

Virtus Entella

1–1Full time

Juve Stabia

Serie B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Comunale

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Virtus Entella 1–1 Juve Stabia VIRTUS ENTELLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Virtus Entella win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Virtus Entella win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Virtus Entella was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
2′KICK-OFF Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Niccolo Squizzato · Virtus Entella
26′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Leonardo Benedetti · Virtus Entella
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Marco Bellich · Juve Stabia
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Virtus Entella win 34%)
46′Juve Stabia ahead on 47′ through Antonio Di Nardo. 0–0. 0–0 · 31–44–25
46′HALF-TIME Virtus Entella 0–0 Juve Stabia
46′SECOND HALF Virtus Entella 0–0 Juve Stabia
50′⚽ GOAL · 47' Virtus Entella 0–1 Juve Stabia · Antonio Di Nardo (assist Giusepe Sibilli)
54′We said Virtus Entella at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–22–72
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Virtus Entella · On: Lucas Felippe · Off: Luca Vignali Corrected
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Virtus Entella win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Juve Stabia win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 22%)
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Virtus Entella · On: Francesco Mezzoni · Off: Leonardo Benedetti Corrected
62′We said Virtus Entella at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Virtus Entella · On: Giacomo Corona · Off: Luca Vignali Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Juve Stabia · On: Kevin Piscopo · Off: Fabio Maistro Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Juve Stabia · On: Sana Fernandes · Off: Giusepe Sibilli Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Juve Stabia · On: Leonardo Candellone · Off: Antonio Di Nardo Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Juve Stabia · On: Manuel Ricciardi · Off: Christian Pierobon Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Juve Stabia · On: Thomas Battistella · Off: Davide Buglio Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Virtus Entella · On: Marwane Kritta · Off: Stefano Di Mario Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Virtus Entella · On: M Tirelli · Off: Luigi Cuppone Corrected
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Virtus Entella 1–1 Juve Stabia · Antonio Di Nardo
FTFULL TIME Virtus Entella 1–1 Juve Stabia
FTVirtus Entella 1–1 Juve Stabia · Virtus Entella win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Virtus Entella win39%

Draw31%

Juve Stabia win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadio Comunale

Referee · Mattia Drigo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Virtus Entella

4-4-1-1

22 F. Del Frate

23 L. Parodi

6 A. Tiritiello

27 M. Alborghetti

26 S. Di Mario

8 L. Vignali

5 N. Squizzato

80 L. Benedetti

11 B. Guiu

24 A. Franzoni

10 L. Cuppone

Coach · Andrea Chiappella

Substitutes

12 · E. Torrielli

91 · S. Colombi

94 · F. Mezzoni

16 · R. Turicchia

70 · M. Kritta

3 · N. Previtali

39 · M. Motolese

55 · Lucas Martello

18 · T. Annoni

28 · M. Valori

17 · M. Tirelli

9 · G. Corona

Juve Stabia

4-3-3

23 P. Boer

96 T. Maggioni

87 D. Bettella

6 M. Bellich

25 T. Douglas

10 C. Pierobon

8 D. Buglio

24 J. Kumi

37 F. Maistro

9 A. Di Nardo

33 G. Sibilli

Coach · Pietro De Giorgio

Substitutes

1 · A. Vukovic

92 · F. Gallea

2 · M. Ricciardi

4 · M. Baldi

80 · F. Artioli

17 · N. Karic

5 · T. Battistella

7 · N. Patane

30 · R. Sandrucci

27 · L. Candellone

11 · K. Piscopo

77 · S. Fernandes

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Virtus Entella

4-4-1-1

22 F. Del Frate

23 L. Parodi

6 A. Tiritiello

27 M. Alborghetti

26 S. Di Mario

8 L. Vignali

5 N. Squizzato

80 L. Benedetti

11 B. Guiu

24 A. Franzoni

10 L. Cuppone

Coach · Andrea Chiappella

Substitutes

12 · E. Torrielli

91 · S. Colombi

94 · F. Mezzoni

16 · R. Turicchia

70 · M. Kritta

3 · N. Previtali

39 · M. Motolese

55 · Lucas Martello

18 · T. Annoni

28 · M. Valori

17 · M. Tirelli

9 · G. Corona

Juve Stabia

4-3-3

23 P. Boer

96 T. Maggioni

87 D. Bettella

6 M. Bellich

25 T. Douglas

10 C. Pierobon

8 D. Buglio

24 J. Kumi

37 F. Maistro

9 A. Di Nardo

33 G. Sibilli

Coach · Pietro De Giorgio

Substitutes

1 · A. Vukovic

92 · F. Gallea

2 · M. Ricciardi

4 · M. Baldi

80 · F. Artioli

17 · N. Karic

5 · T. Battistella

7 · N. Patane

30 · R. Sandrucci

27 · L. Candellone

11 · K. Piscopo

77 · S. Fernandes

Our number · virtus entella winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Virtus Entella a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · virtus entella win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Virtus Entella win	39%	46%	−8
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Juve Stabia win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Virtus Entella or draw	70%	76%	−6
Virtus Entella clean sheet	35%	–	–
Juve Stabia clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 11.8 9.7 5.7 2.0 1 11.5 14.3 6.8 2.4 2 7.7 7.9 4.1 3 3.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Virtus Entella down, Juve Stabia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 Serie B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Virtus Entella at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Juve Stabia away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Virtus Entella, 1.04 for Juve Stabia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JUV 1–0 VIR · VIR 1–1 JUV

Form · last six in Serie B

VIRTUS ENTELLA

WLLDWD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 0–0

JUVE STABIA

LLWLDD1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	5	+5	13
2	Sudtirol	5	+6	11
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Avellino	6	+4	10
5	Modena	5	+4	10
6	Ascoli	5	+3	10
7	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
8	Cesena	5	+1	7
9	Benevento	5	+1	7
10	Pisa	5	0	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Empoli	5	−2	6
13	Arezzo	5	−7	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	+1	5
15	Cremonese	5	−2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	−3	5
17	Juve Stabia	5	−3	5
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1