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Vicenza Virtus v Pisa

Vicenza Virtus

0–3Full time

Pisa

Serie B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Romeo Menti

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Vicenza Virtus 0–3 Pisa PISA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pisa win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.559

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pisa win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pisa 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Vicenza Virtus v Pisa
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Pisa
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Pisa · Filippo Pittarello (assist Matteo Tramoni)
21′Filippo Pittarello scores for Pisa on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–67
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
24′Filippo Pittarello scores for Pisa on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–68
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
27′We said Pisa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
27′🟨 YELLOW · 28' P. Bianco · Pisa
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Pisa win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
45′HALF-TIME Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Pisa
45′SECOND HALF Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Pisa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vicenza Virtus · On: Nicola Rauti · Off: Marco Carraro Corrected
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vicenza Virtus 0–2 Pisa · Filippo Pittarello
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Vicenza Virtus 0–2 Pisa · Arturo Calabresi (assist Matteo Tramoni)
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vicenza Virtus · On: L. Caferri · Off: Alessandro Pietrelli Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vicenza Virtus · On: Mattia Valoti · Off: Giuseppe Cuomo Corrected
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Maxime Leverbe · Vicenza Virtus
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Vicenza Virtus · On: Gabriele Moncini · Off: Filippo Alessio Corrected
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Mehdi Léris · Pisa
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pisa · On: Emanuele Rao · Off: Matteo Tramoni Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pisa · On: Tommaso Marras · Off: Stefano Moreo Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pisa · On: Rosen Bozhinov · Off: Andrea Primasso Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Vicenza Virtus · On: Filippo Costa · Off: Maxime Leverbe Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Pisa · On: Francesco Coppola · Off: Simone Zanon Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Vicenza Virtus 0–3 Pisa · Arturo Calabresi
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Pisa · On: Simone Canestrelli · Off: Mehdi Léris Corrected
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Vicenza Virtus 0–3 Pisa · Emanuele Rao
FTFULL TIME Vicenza Virtus 0–3 Pisa
FTVicenza Virtus 0–3 Pisa · Pisa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vicenza Virtus win34%

Draw27%

Pisa win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:15

Venue · Stadio Romeo Menti

Referee · Davide Di Marco

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vicenza Virtus

3-1-4-2

16 R. Gagno

14 G. Cuomo

6 M. Leverbe

5 R. Marchizza

4 M. Carraro

99 A. Pietrelli

26 G. Pellizzari

29 L. Zonta

27 T. Sandon

33 S. Merkaj

24 F. Alessio

Coach · Fabio Gallo

Substitutes

68 · E. Tantalocchi

21 · T. Corazza

23 · N. Brighenti

66 · A. Papetti

32 · F. Costa

10 · M. Valoti

8 · A. Bellemo

28 · L. Caferri

44 · R. Talarico

11 · G. Moncini

9 · C. Morra

7 · N. Rauti

Pisa

3-4-2-1

98 A. Confente

33 A. Calabresi

13 A. Primasso

3 S. Angori

72 S. Zanon

55 G. Leone

29 O. Correia

7 M. Leris

32 S. Moreo

10 M. Tramoni

8 F. Pittarello

Coach · Paolo Bianco

Substitutes

1 · S. Scuffet

26 · F. Coppola

5 · S. Canestrelli

19 · T. Esteves

44 · D. Denoon

2 · R. Bozhinov

21 · I. Vural

14 · F. Loyola

23 · T. Marras

17 · E. Rao

11 · I. Ferrah

36 · G. Piccinini

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vicenza Virtus

3-1-4-2

16 R. Gagno

14 G. Cuomo

6 M. Leverbe

5 R. Marchizza

4 M. Carraro

99 A. Pietrelli

26 G. Pellizzari

29 L. Zonta

27 T. Sandon

33 S. Merkaj

24 F. Alessio

Coach · Fabio Gallo

Substitutes

68 · E. Tantalocchi

21 · T. Corazza

23 · N. Brighenti

66 · A. Papetti

32 · F. Costa

10 · M. Valoti

8 · A. Bellemo

28 · L. Caferri

44 · R. Talarico

11 · G. Moncini

9 · C. Morra

7 · N. Rauti

Pisa

3-4-2-1

98 A. Confente

33 A. Calabresi

13 A. Primasso

3 S. Angori

72 S. Zanon

55 G. Leone

29 O. Correia

7 M. Leris

32 S. Moreo

10 M. Tramoni

8 F. Pittarello

Coach · Paolo Bianco

Substitutes

1 · S. Scuffet

26 · F. Coppola

5 · S. Canestrelli

19 · T. Esteves

44 · D. Denoon

2 · R. Bozhinov

21 · I. Vural

14 · F. Loyola

23 · T. Marras

17 · E. Rao

11 · I. Ferrah

36 · G. Piccinini

Our number · pisa winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Pisa a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pisa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vicenza Virtus win	34%	32%	+1
Draw	27%	29%	−1
Pisa win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Vicenza Virtus or draw	61%	61%	0
Vicenza Virtus clean sheet	24%	–	–
Pisa clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.6 8.0 6.6 3.2 1 7.3 12.9 8.5 4.1 2 5.5 7.8 5.6 2.7 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vicenza Virtus down, Pisa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 Serie B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pisa away: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Vicenza Virtus, 1.45 for Pisa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PIS 2–2 VIC · VIC 1–3 PIS

Form · last six in Serie B

VICENZA VIRTUS

LWLDDL0–2 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

PISA

WLWWLD2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	5	+5	13
2	Sudtirol	5	+6	11
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Avellino	6	+4	10
5	Modena	5	+4	10
6	Ascoli	5	+3	10
7	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
8	Cesena	5	+1	7
9	Benevento	5	+1	7
10	Pisa	5	0	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Empoli	5	−2	6
13	Arezzo	5	−7	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	+1	5
15	Cremonese	5	−2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	−3	5
17	Juve Stabia	5	−3	5
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1