Sudtirol v Sampdoria prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Sudtirol 1–1 Sampdoria SUDTIROL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sudtirol win~~44%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.700

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sudtirol win at 44%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Sudtirol 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–25
2′KICK-OFF Sudtirol v Sampdoria
14′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Sampdoria · On: Manuel Cicconi · Off: Fabio Depaoli
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Manuel Cicconi · Sampdoria
34′We said Sudtirol at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sudtirol 0–1 Sampdoria
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Sudtirol win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Sampdoria win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Sudtirol win 38%)
35′34′: Yari Verschaeren on the scoresheet for Sampdoria, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
45′SECOND HALF Sudtirol 0–1 Sampdoria
47′We said Sudtirol at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
48′HALF-TIME Sudtirol 0–1 Sampdoria
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sudtirol · On: Alvin Okoro · Off: Rares Burnete
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sudtirol · On: Elia Schrott · Off: Simone Davì
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Giacomo Stabile · Sudtirol
65′We said Sudtirol at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Sudtirol win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sampdoria · On: Gennaro Tutino · Off: Tobias Lauritsen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sampdoria · On: Stefan Gartenmann · Off: Alex Ferrari
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sudtirol · On: Davide Veroli · Off: Giacomo Stabile
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Stefan Gartenmann · Sampdoria
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sudtirol · On: Dhirar Brik · Off: Aljosa Vasic
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sudtirol · On: Kevin Zeroli · Off: Simone Tronchin
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sampdoria · On: Yann Karamoh · Off: Tjas Begic
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sampdoria · On: Kevin Mbabu · Off: Yari Verschaeren
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Sudtirol 1–1 Sampdoria
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Sampdoria win 99%)
97′Sudtirol level it on 90′ through Salvatore Molina. 1–1. 1–1 · 0–100–0
97′1–1 at the end. Our 44% on Sudtirol misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Sudtirol 1–1 Sampdoria
FTSudtirol 1–1 Sampdoria · Sudtirol win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sudtirol are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sudtirol 44%, draw 30%, Sampdoria 25%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sudtirol v SampdoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sudtirol win44%

Draw30%

Sampdoria win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStadio Druso

RefereeValerio Crezzini

Line-ups

Sudtirol

3-4-2-1

Sampdoria

4-3-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sudtirol

Sampdoria

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Sampdoria snub Giampaolo and appoint D’Angelo: ‘It was easy to say yes’Football Italia · 23 Oct 20:26 · Sampdoria

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sudtirol

3-4-2-1

22 A. Plizzari

4 R. Stivanello

55 A. Giorgini

27 G. Stabile

79 S. Molina

10 Fabio Rispoli

5 S. Tronchin

24 S. Davì

9 R. Burnete

14 A. Vasic

25 K. Mixtur

Coach · D. Possanzini

Substitutes

23 · F. Davi

46 · D. Brik

39 · Marco Iuliano

90 · A. Okoro

1 · Lukas Ploner

80 · Elias Schroot

21 · F. Tait

12 · Rok Vadjunec

3 · D. Veroli

18 · Kevin Zeroli

17 · L. Anghelè

Sampdoria

4-3-2-1

12 Andrey Krastev

29 A. Di Pardo

25 A. Ferrari

15 F. Delli Carri

23 F. Depaoli

6 L. Henderson

45 A. Makoumbou

28 O. Abildgaard

11 T. Begić

16 Y. Verschaeren

9 T. Lauritsen

Coach · L. D'Angelo

Substitutes

1 · P. Vindahl

99 · G. Tutino

43 · K. Mbabu

96 · S. Massolo

14 · Yann Karamoh

3 · S. Gartenmann

38 · K. Diop

7 · M. Cicconi

Our number · sudtirol winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

44% The market32%

Us44%

~~Market~~32%

We make Sudtirol a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sudtirol v Sampdoria~~1.33 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~5 v 19

~~The market · Sudtirol win~~32% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sudtirol win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sudtirol win	44%	32%	+12
Draw	30%	32%	−2
Sampdoria win	25%	36%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Sudtirol or draw	75%	64%	+11
Sudtirol clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sampdoria clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.7 8.4 4.6 1 12.3 14.1 6.1 2 9.1 8.5 4.0 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sudtirol down, Sampdoria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,020 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.29 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sudtirol at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sampdoria away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Sudtirol, 0.95 for Sampdoria. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SAM 1–0 SUD · SUD 3–1 SAM · SUD 2–1 SAM · SAM 1–0 SUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug

SUDTIROL

DWDWDL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

SAMPDORIA

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4