Sudtirol v Cesena prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SudtirolDrawCesena

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sudtirol 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sudtirol are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sudtirol 43%, draw 30%, Cesena 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sudtirol v CesenaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sudtirol win43%

Draw30%

Cesena win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadio Marco Druso

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sudtirol

Cesena

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sudtirol	8	+3	13
15	Cesena	8	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sudtirol winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sudtirol a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sudtirol v Cesena~~1.36 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~7 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sudtirol win	43%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Cesena win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Sudtirol or draw	73%	–	–
Sudtirol clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cesena clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.4 8.3 4.9 1 11.2 13.9 6.6 2.3 2 8.4 8.6 4.5 3 3.8 3.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sudtirol down, Cesena across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,027 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sudtirol at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cesena away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Sudtirol, 1.04 for Cesena. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CES 1–1 SUD · SUD 0–1 CES · SUD 1–1 CES · CES 1–0 SUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept

SUDTIROL

WDWDLD2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

CESENA

DDDLDL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	8	+6	17
3	Modena	8	+7	16
4	Ascoli	8	+8	15
5	Benevento	8	+6	14
6	Pisa	7	+5	13
7	Sudtirol	8	+3	13
8	Avellino	8	+3	11
9	Padova	8	−3	10
10	Arezzo	8	−9	10
11	Virtus Entella	8	+1	9
12	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
13	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
14	Juve Stabia	8	+1	8
15	Cesena	8	−4	8
16	Empoli	8	−6	7
17	Carrarese	7	−1	7
18	Cremonese	8	−5	6
19	Sampdoria	8	−8	5
20	Catanzaro	8	−11	4