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Sudtirol v Ascoli

Sudtirol

0–0Full time

Ascoli

Serie B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Druso

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Sudtirol 0–0 Ascoli SUDTIROL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sudtirol win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.737

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sudtirol win at 39%.
3′Much as we predicted: Sudtirol was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
3′KICK-OFF Sudtirol v Ascoli
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sudtirol win 34%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Salvatore Molina · Sudtirol
45′HALF-TIME Sudtirol 0–0 Ascoli
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sudtirol · On: Kenny Meddy Mixtur · Off: Alvin Okoro Corrected
47′SECOND HALF Sudtirol 0–0 Ascoli
51′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Giacomo Stabile · Sudtirol
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Sudtirol win: 39% at kick-off, 28% now
60′We said Sudtirol at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–54–20
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes · Sudtirol
64′We said Sudtirol at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–58–19
68′13.0 shots for Sudtirol, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–62–17
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sudtirol · On: Rares Burnete · Off: Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Rares Burnete · Sudtirol
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ascoli · On: Giacomo De Pieri · Off: Andrea·Silipo Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ascoli · On: amine chakir · Off: Matteo Brunori Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ascoli · On: Gennao Acampora · Off: Tommaso Milanese Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Nicholas Rizzo · Ascoli
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sudtirol · On: Lorenzo Anghele · Off: Aljosa Vasic Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sudtirol · On: Davide Veroli · Off: Giacomo Stabile Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sudtirol · On: Dhirar Brik · Off: Fabio Rispoli Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ascoli · On: Don Bolsius · Off: Simone D'Uffizi Corrected
FTFULL TIME Sudtirol 0–0 Ascoli
FTSudtirol 0–0 Ascoli · Sudtirol win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sudtirol win39%

Draw31%

Ascoli win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadio Druso

Referee · Niccolo Turrini

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sudtirol

5-4-1

22 A. Plizzari

79 S. Molina

4 R. Stivanello

55 A. Giorgini

27 G. Stabile

24 S. Davi

11 V. Lopes

5 S. Tronchin

10 F. Rispoli

14 A. Vasic

90 A. Okoro

Coach · Fabrizio Castori

Substitutes

12 · R. Vadjunec

1 · L. Ploner

19 · M. Pellini

3 · D. Veroli

21 · F. Tait

46 · D. Brik

25 · K. Mixtur

17 · L. Anghele

9 · R. Burnete

40 · J. Leitner

80 · E. Schroot

Ascoli

4-2-3-1

1 S. Vitale

14 A. Oliveri

30 M. Curado

33 N. Rizzo

19 A. Guiebre

8 G. Corradini

4 S. Damiani

7 A. Silipo

62 T. Milanese

15 S. D'Uffizi

99 M. Brunori

Coach · Francesco Tomei

Substitutes

45 · G. M. Crespi

5 · L. Venuti

3 · M. Nicoletti

32 · F. Gattoni

21 · G. De Pieri

18 · L. Lo Scalzo

27 · M. Ricci

13 · G. Acampora

11 · S. Perciun

77 · D. Bolsius

35 · G. Gori

9 · M. A. Chakir

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sudtirol

5-4-1

22 A. Plizzari

79 S. Molina

4 R. Stivanello

55 A. Giorgini

27 G. Stabile

24 S. Davi

11 V. Lopes

5 S. Tronchin

10 F. Rispoli

14 A. Vasic

90 A. Okoro

Coach · Fabrizio Castori

Substitutes

12 · R. Vadjunec

1 · L. Ploner

19 · M. Pellini

3 · D. Veroli

21 · F. Tait

46 · D. Brik

25 · K. Mixtur

17 · L. Anghele

9 · R. Burnete

40 · J. Leitner

80 · E. Schroot

Ascoli

4-2-3-1

1 S. Vitale

14 A. Oliveri

30 M. Curado

33 N. Rizzo

19 A. Guiebre

8 G. Corradini

4 S. Damiani

7 A. Silipo

62 T. Milanese

15 S. D'Uffizi

99 M. Brunori

Coach · Francesco Tomei

Substitutes

45 · G. M. Crespi

5 · L. Venuti

3 · M. Nicoletti

32 · F. Gattoni

21 · G. De Pieri

18 · L. Lo Scalzo

27 · M. Ricci

13 · G. Acampora

11 · S. Perciun

77 · D. Bolsius

35 · G. Gori

9 · M. A. Chakir

Our number · sudtirol winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Sudtirol a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sudtirol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sudtirol win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Ascoli win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	48%	−9
Both teams to score	46%	55%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	66%	72%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−9
Sudtirol or draw	70%	67%	+3
Sudtirol clean sheet	36%	–	–
Ascoli clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.2 9.8 5.6 1 11.9 14.3 6.7 2.3 2 7.9 7.9 4.0 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sudtirol down, Ascoli across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 Serie B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sudtirol at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ascoli away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Sudtirol, 1.02 for Ascoli. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ASC 1–2 SUD · SUD 3–1 ASC · ASC 1–0 SUD · SUD 2–2 ASC

Form · last six in Serie B

SUDTIROL

DWDWDW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1

ASCOLI

WWDWLW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	5	+5	13
2	Sudtirol	5	+6	11
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Avellino	6	+4	10
5	Modena	5	+4	10
6	Ascoli	5	+3	10
7	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
8	Cesena	5	+1	7
9	Benevento	5	+1	7
10	Pisa	5	0	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Empoli	5	−2	6
13	Arezzo	5	−7	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	+1	5
15	Cremonese	5	−2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	−3	5
17	Juve Stabia	5	−3	5
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1