Sampdoria v Arezzo prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01

Sampdoria 1–2 Arezzo SAMPDORIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sampdoria win~~42%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.759

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.970

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sampdoria win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sampdoria 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–29
1′KICK-OFF Sampdoria v Arezzo
2′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Liam Henderson · Sampdoria
9′We said Sampdoria at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Sampdoria 1–0 Arezzo
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Sampdoria win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
10′Liam Henderson scores for Sampdoria on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Luca Chierico · Arezzo
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sampdoria 1–1 Arezzo
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Sampdoria win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
15′15′: Alessandro Arena on the scoresheet for Arezzo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–32–29
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sampdoria win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Sampdoria 1–1 Arezzo
46′HALF-TIME Sampdoria 1–1 Arezzo
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Sampdoria win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
53′We said Sampdoria at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–46–23
56′We said Sampdoria at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 28–51–21
60′We said Sampdoria at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–22–73
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–22–73
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Sampdoria 1–2 Arezzo
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Sampdoria win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Arezzo win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
61′Arezzo ahead on 60′ through Luca Chierico. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–73
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sampdoria · On: Gennaro Tutino · Off: Tobias Lauritsen
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sampdoria · On: Fabio Depaoli · Off: Liam Henderson
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Arezzo · On: Leonardo Mancuso · Off: Alberto Cerri
65′We said Sampdoria at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Arezzo · On: Gennaro·Iaccarino · Off: Luca Chierico
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Shaka Mawuli Eklu · Arezzo
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Bernardo Corradi · Sampdoria
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Arezzo · On: Andrea Cagnano · Off: Samuele Righetti
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Arezzo · On: Artur Ioniță · Off: Shaka Mawuli Eklu
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Sampdoria win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
76′Sampdoria have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sampdoria · On: Kevin Mbabu · Off: Alessandro Di Pardo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sampdoria · On: Yann Karamoh · Off: Antoine Makoumbou
79′16 shots for Sampdoria, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–86
81′We said Sampdoria at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 12–79–9
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Arezzo · On: Emiliano Pattarello · Off: Alessandro Arena
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Sampdoria 2–2 Arezzo
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sampdoria win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Arezzo win 9%)
82′GOAL DISALLOWED · 82' Sampdoria
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sampdoria win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Arezzo win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sampdoria · On: Alex Ferrari · Off: Luca Ravanelli
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sampdoria 1–3 Arezzo
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Arezzo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tjas Begic · Sampdoria
92′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Filippo Delli Carri · Sampdoria
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Christian Bucchi · Arezzo
FTFULL TIME Sampdoria 1–2 Arezzo
FTSampdoria 1–2 Arezzo · Sampdoria win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sampdoria are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sampdoria 42%, draw 29%, Arezzo 29%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sampdoria v ArezzoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sampdoria win42%

Draw29%

Arezzo win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueLuigi Ferraris

RefereeAndrea Colombo

Line-ups

Sampdoria

4-3-2-1

Arezzo

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sampdoria

Arezzo

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 10 Oct · the Italian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Arezzo	6	−7	7
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sampdoria

4-3-2-1

1 P. Vindahl

29 A. Di Pardo

13 L. Ravanelli

15 F. Delli Carri

7 M. Cicconi

6 L. Henderson

45 A. Makoumbou

28 O. Abildgaard

16 Y. Verschaeren

11 T. Begic

9 T. Lauritsen

Coach · Bernardo Corradi

Substitutes

96 · S. Massolo

12 · A. Krastev

43 · K. Mbabu

25 · A. Ferrari

3 · S. Gartenmann

23 · F. Depaoli

99 · G. Tutino

14 · Y. Karamoh

Arezzo

4-1-4-1

14 A. Nunziante

6 A. Renzi

13 M. Gilli

4 M. Coppolaro

37 S. Righetti

24 L. Chierico

30 A. Arena

16 M. Sala

8 S. M. Eklu

21 C. Tavernelli

9 A. Cerri

Coach · Cristian Bucchi

Substitutes

90 · A. Seculin

67 · G. M. Ferrari

32 · A. Cagnano

2 · M. Mena

33 · D. Mancini

17 · A. Ionita

78 · G. Iaccarino

7 · K. Leone

47 · A. Manes

11 · L. Mancuso

71 · P. Cianci

10 · E. Pattarello

Our number · sampdoria winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market53%

Us42%

~~Market~~53%

We make Sampdoria a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sampdoria v Arezzo~~1.37 – 1.11

~~Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~18 v 15

~~The market · Sampdoria win~~53% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sampdoria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sampdoria win	42%	53%	−11
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Arezzo win	29%	21%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Sampdoria or draw	71%	79%	−8
Sampdoria clean sheet	33%	–	–
Arezzo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.8 8.1 5.2 1 10.2 13.8 7.0 2.6 2 7.8 8.6 4.8 3 3.6 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sampdoria down, Arezzo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,016 Serie B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sampdoria at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Arezzo away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Sampdoria, 1.11 for Arezzo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 18:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug

SAMPDORIA

DLLLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4

AREZZO

WLLWLD2–1 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	6	+6	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Benevento	7	+3	11
8	Avellino	6	+4	10
9	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
10	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
11	Cesena	6	−1	7
12	Carrarese	7	−1	7
13	Empoli	7	−4	7
14	Padova	7	−4	7
15	Arezzo	6	−7	7
16	Cremonese	7	−4	6
17	Vicenza Virtus	7	−6	6
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	7	−6	4
20	Juve Stabia	6	−3	2