Pisa v Palermo prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PisaDrawPalermo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pisa 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pisa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pisa 41%, draw 27%, Palermo 32%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Pisa v PalermoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pisa win41%

Draw27%

Palermo win32%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pisa

Palermo

11Days since last match11

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pisa winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Pisa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pisa v Palermo~~1.50 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 19~~3 v 1

~~The market · Pisa win~~41% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pisa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pisa win	41%	41%	0
Draw	27%	27%	0
Palermo win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Pisa or draw	68%	68%	0
Pisa clean sheet	28%	–	–
Palermo clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.4 6.9 5.1 2.2 1 8.1 12.9 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pisa down, Palermo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,027 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pisa at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Palermo away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Pisa, 1.29 for Palermo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PAL 1–2 PIS · PIS 2–0 PAL · PIS 4–3 PAL · PAL 3–2 PIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 30 Aug

PISA

WWLDWW2–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–1

PALERMO

WWDWWW3–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4