Pisa v Cremonese

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pisa win at 42%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Pisa was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–29
3. 1′KICK-OFF Pisa v Cremonese
4. 4′Pisa ahead on 3′ through Matteo Tramoni. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Pisa 1–0 Cremonese · Matteo Tramoni
6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
7. 5′We published Pisa at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
8. 11′We published Pisa at 42%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
9. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Pisa 2–0 Cremonese
10. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
11. 12′GOAL DISALLOWED · 12' Pisa
12. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
14. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Pisa 1–1 Cremonese
15. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
16. 33′Tommaso Berti scores for Cremonese on 32′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–35–27
17. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Arturo Calabresi · Pisa
18. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Marco Nasti · Cremonese
19. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Pisa win 35%)
20. 45′SECOND HALF Pisa 1–1 Cremonese
21. 46′HALF-TIME Pisa 1–1 Cremonese
22. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cremonese · On: Adrian Lickunas · Off: Marco Nasti
23. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
24. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese
25. 56′We said Pisa at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–47–23
26. 58′We said Pisa at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
27. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Pisa · On: Rosen Bozhinov · Off: Arturo Calabresi
28. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Pisa · On: Felipe Loyola · Off: Giuseppe Leone
29. 67′We said Pisa at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
30. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Mehdi Léris · Pisa
31. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Cremonese · On: Manuel De Luca · Off: Tommaso Berti
33. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Cremonese · On: Simone Lottici Tessadri · Off: Jari Vandeputte
34. 74′We said Pisa at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
35. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cremonese · On: Alessandro Vogliacco · Off: Salvatore Elia
36. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pisa · On: Tommaso Marras · Off: Mehdi Léris
37. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pisa · On: Andrea Petagna · Off: Filippo Pittarello
38. 79′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–11–1
39. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pisa 2–1 Cremonese
40. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
41. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Pisa win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 11%)
42. 81′79′: Stefano Moreo on the scoresheet for Pisa, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
43. 82′We published Pisa at 42%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
44. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Alessandro Vogliacco · Cremonese
45. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Pisa win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Cremonese · On: Gabriel Herzuah · Off: Tommaso Barbieri
47. 88′We published Pisa at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
48. 88′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
49. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Pisa 3–1 Cremonese
50. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Pisa · On: Antonio Caracciolo · Off: Simone Zanon
51. 90′Pisa ahead on 88′ through Tommaso Marras. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
52. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tommaso Marras · Pisa
53. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Andrea Primasso · Pisa
54. 94′Full time, 3–1. We called Pisa at 42% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
55. FTFULL TIME Pisa 3–1 Cremonese
56. FTPisa 3–1 Cremonese · Pisa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.