Palermo v Carrarese
PalermoCarrareseSerie B · SUN 25 OCT · Renzo Barbera
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Palermo are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Palermo 55%, draw 26%, Carrarese 19%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Palermo win55%Carrarese win19%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueRenzo Barbera
RefereeMattia Drigo
Match timeline
All events
PalermoMINCarrareseEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Palermo
Carrarese
Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B
Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 14 | Carrarese | 7 | −1 | 7 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Palermo a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 55% | 64% | −9 |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | +6 |
| Carrarese win | 19% | 16% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 62% | −12 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 41% | −13 |
| Palermo or draw | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Palermo clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug
PALERMO
CARRARESE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Mantova | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Modena | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 |  Sudtirol | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 |  Ascoli | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 |  Avellino | 7 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Benevento | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 |  Arezzo | 7 | −6 | 10 |
| 10 |  Virtus Entella | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 |  Vicenza Virtus | 8 | −4 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 13 |  Cesena | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 14 | Carrarese | 7 | −1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Empoli | 8 | −6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Padova | 7 | −4 | 7 |
| 17 |  Cremonese | 7 | −4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Juve Stabia | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 7 | −6 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.