Home › Football › Serie B › Padova v Virtus Entella

Padova v Virtus Entella

Padova

1–2Full time

Virtus Entella

Serie B · SAT 17 OCT · Stadio Comunale Euganeo

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Padova 1–2 Virtus Entella PADOVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Padova win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.753

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.731

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Padova win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Padova 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
1′KICK-OFF Padova v Virtus Entella
28′We said Padova at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Padova 1–0 Virtus Entella
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Padova win: 40% at kick-off, 73% now
29′Padova score on 28′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
38′10 shots for Virtus Entella, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
41′We said Padova at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Padova 2–0 Virtus Entella
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Padova win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
42′We said Padova at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Padova
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Padova win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Padova 1–0 Virtus Entella
46′HALF-TIME Padova 1–0 Virtus Entella
50′28′: Stefano Di Mario puts it into the Virtus Entella net, and it is 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
50′We said Padova at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
51′10 shots for Virtus Entella, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 77–19–5
51′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 77–19–5
54′We said Padova at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–49–22
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Padova 1–1 Virtus Entella
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Padova win: 40% at kick-off, 28% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Padova win 28%)
55′Virtus Entella level it on 54′ through Andrea Tiritiello. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–50–22
56′12 shots for Virtus Entella, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 28–51–22
63′We said Padova at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
69′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Padova · On: Alexander Seghetti · Off: Kevin Lasagna
69′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Padova · On: Pietro Fusi · Off: Marco Pompetti
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Virtus Entella · On: Leonardo Benedetti · Off: Tommaso Annoni
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Virtus Entella · On: Bernat Guiu · Off: M Tirelli
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Padova win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Padova at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–15
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Padova · On: Luca Moro · Off: Gabriele Artistico
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Padova · On: Alessandro Capelli · Off: Lorenzo Carissoni
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Giovanni·Giunti · Padova
77′We said Padova at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Virtus Entella · On: Giacomo Corona · Off: Luigi Cuppone
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Virtus Entella · On: Luca Vignali · Off: Niccolo Squizzato
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Padova · On: Nicolas Galazzi · Off: Giovanni·Giunti
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Padova win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Padova at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
84′We said Padova at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–7–92
84′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–7–92
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Padova 1–2 Virtus Entella
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Padova win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Virtus Entella win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
86′Bernat Guiu scores for Virtus Entella on 84′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Virtus Entella · On: Nicolas Previtali · Off: Francesco Mezzoni
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Andrea Franzoni · Virtus Entella
FTFULL TIME Padova 1–2 Virtus Entella
FTPadova 1–2 Virtus Entella · Padova win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Padova are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Padova 40%, draw 31%, Virtus Entella 29%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Padova v Virtus EntellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Padova win40%

Draw31%

Virtus Entella win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadio Comunale Euganeo

RefereeDario Madonia

Line-ups

Padova

3-5-2

Virtus Entella

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Padova

Virtus Entella

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 10 Oct · the Italian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Padova	6	−3	7
14	Virtus Entella	6	+1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Padova

3-5-2

22 A. Sorrentino

27 A. Dellavalle

5 M. Lovato

58 C. Pastina

24 L. Carissoni

6 G. Giunti

21 E. Zuelli

14 M. Pompetti

34 M. Cocchi

15 K. Lasagna

90 G. Artistico

Coach · Roberto Breda

Substitutes

1 · L. Mouquet

32 · F. Sgarbi

18 · E. Silletti

8 · P. Fusi

7 · K. Varas

25 · N. Galazzi

74 · D. Marcolini

23 · F. Di Mariano

20 · M. Bortolussi

9 · L. Moro

17 · A. Capelli

11 · A. Seghetti

Virtus Entella

3-5-2

22 F. Del Frate

23 L. Parodi

6 A. Tiritiello

27 M. Alborghetti

94 F. Mezzoni

18 T. Annoni

5 N. Squizzato

24 A. Franzoni

26 S. Di Mario

10 L. Cuppone

17 M. Tirelli

Coach · Andrea Chiappella

Substitutes

12 · E. Torrielli

91 · S. Colombi

16 · R. Turicchia

70 · M. Kritta

3 · N. Previtali

39 · M. Motolese

8 · L. Vignali

80 · L. Benedetti

55 · Lucas Martello

11 · B. Guiu

40 · G. Costa

9 · G. Corona

Our number · padova winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Padova a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Padova v Virtus Entella~~1.26 – 1.04

~~Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~11 v 14

~~The market · Padova win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Padova win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Padova win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	31%	32%	−1
Virtus Entella win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
Padova or draw	71%	70%	+1
Padova clean sheet	36%	–	–
Virtus Entella clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 11.5 9.2 5.5 1 11.4 14.3 6.8 2.4 2 7.9 8.1 4.2 3 3.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Padova down, Virtus Entella across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,010 Serie B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Padova at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Virtus Entella away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Padova, 1.04 for Virtus Entella. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIR 1–0 PAD · PAD 2–1 VIR · PAD 0–1 VIR · PAD 2–1 VIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug

PADOVA

WDLWLL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

VIRTUS ENTELLA

LLDWDD0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	6	+7	16
2	Mantova	6	+7	14
3	Modena	6	+5	13
4	Sudtirol	6	+6	12
5	Ascoli	6	+3	11
6	Avellino	6	+4	10
7	Pisa	6	+3	10
8	Benevento	6	+3	10
9	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
10	Cesena	6	−1	7
11	Padova	6	−3	7
12	Arezzo	6	−7	7
13	Empoli	6	−4	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	+1	6
15	Cremonese	6	−2	6
16	Vicenza Virtus	6	−6	5
17	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
18	Catanzaro	7	−6	4
19	Carrarese	6	−2	4
20	Juve Stabia	6	−3	2