Padova v Sudtirol prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PadovaDrawSudtirol

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Padova 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Padova are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Padova 38%, draw 31%, Sudtirol 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Padova v SudtirolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Padova win38%

Draw31%

Sudtirol win31%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadio Euganeo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Padova

Sudtirol

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
16	Padova	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · padova winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Padova a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Padova v Sudtirol~~1.21 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~16 v 5

~~The market · Padova win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Padova win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Padova win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Sudtirol win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Padova or draw	69%	70%	−1
Padova clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sudtirol clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 11.9 9.7 5.8 2.1 1 11.2 14.5 6.9 2.5 2 7.5 7.9 4.2 3 3.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Padova down, Sudtirol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,020 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Padova at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sudtirol away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Padova, 1.06 for Sudtirol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SUD 3–0 PAD · PAD 1–1 SUD · SUD 0–0 PAD · SUD 0–1 PAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept

PADOVA

LWLLLW1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

SUDTIROL

WDWDLD2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4