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Padova v Carrarese

Padova

0–2Full time

Carrarese

Serie B · SUN 11 OCT · Stadio Comunale Euganeo

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Padova 0–2 Carrarese PADOVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Padova win~~42%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.957

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Padova win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Padova 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
5′Little has changed for our model: Padova 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–29
13′Carrarese find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
15′Carrarese ahead on 14′ through Tommaso Rubino. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Padova win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Carrarese win 28%)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Carrarese win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Padova win 17%)
16′We said Padova at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
19′We said Padova at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–60
26′We said Padova at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
29′We said Padova at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–62
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–63
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Filippo Oliana · Carrarese
45′We said Padova at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
45′HALF-TIME Padova 0–1 Carrarese
45′SECOND HALF Padova 0–1 Carrarese
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Carrarese · On: G. Marconi · Off: Fabio abiuso
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Padova · On: Gabriele Artistico · Off: Mattia Bortolussi
50′We said Padova at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–7–92
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Padova 0–2 Carrarese · Tommaso Rubino
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
51′Jonas Rouhi scores for Carrarese on 51′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Padova 0–2 Carrarese · Jonas Rouhi
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
53′Jonas Rouhi scores for Carrarese on 51′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
54′We said Padova at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Padova · On: Marco Pompetti · Off: Gianluca Caprari
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Padova · On: Francesco Di Mariano · Off: Matteo Cocchi
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Carrarese · On: Luka Topalovic · Off: Tommaso Rubino
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Carrarese win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Padova win 1%)
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Carrarese win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Padova win 1%)
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Matthias Braunöder · Carrarese
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Padova win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Carrarese win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Padova win 1%)
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Padova · On: Nicolas Galazzi · Off: Pietro Fusi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Carrarese · On: Jacopo Martini · Off: Nicolas Schiavi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Carrarese · On: T. Guercio · Off: Jonas Rouhi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Carrarese · On: T. Guercio · Off: Jonas Rouhi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Padova · On: Alexander Seghetti · Off: Luca Moro
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Niccolò Belloni · Carrarese
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Gabriele parlanti · Carrarese
92′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Carrarese · On: Nicolo Cudrig · Off: Gabriele parlanti
FTFULL TIME Padova 0–2 Carrarese
FTPadova 0–2 Carrarese · Padova win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Padova win42%

Draw30%

Carrarese win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:15

VenueStadio Comunale Euganeo

RefereeClaudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Line-ups

Padova

3-5-2

Carrarese

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Padova

Carrarese

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Padova	5	−1	7
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Padova

3-5-2

22 A. Sorrentino

32 F. Sgarbi

5 M. Lovato

27 A. Dellavalle

17 A. Capelli

8 P. Fusi

21 E. Zuelli

10 G. Caprari

34 M. Cocchi

20 M. Bortolussi

9 L. Moro

Coach · Roberto Breda

Substitutes

1 · L. Mouquet

58 · C. Pastina

18 · E. Silletti

14 · M. Pompetti

6 · G. Giunti

7 · K. Varas

25 · N. Galazzi

74 · D. Marcolini

23 · F. Di Mariano

15 · K. Lasagna

90 · G. Artistico

11 · A. Seghetti

Carrarese

3-5-2

1 S. Pizzignacco

13 F. Ruggeri

6 F. Oliana

33 F. Reale

7 N. Belloni

18 N. Schiavi

23 M. Braunoder

77 G. Parlanti

73 J. Rouhi

9 F. Abiuso

10 T. Rubino

Coach · Guido Pagliuca

Substitutes

30 · N. Ravaglia

12 · G. Garofani

78 · T. Guercio

41 · L. Romani

4 · D. Vujevic

28 · J. Martini

17 · L. Topalovic

66 · P. Pinelli

32 · M. Finotto

70 · N. Cudrig

91 · G. Marconi

11 · M. Cisse

Our number · padova winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

42% The market52%

Us42%

~~Market~~52%

We make Padova a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · padova win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Padova win	42%	52%	−10
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Carrarese win	28%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	42%	51%	−10
Both teams to score	48%	55%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	21%	31%	−10
Padova or draw	72%	79%	−6
Padova clean sheet	36%	–	–
Carrarese clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.0 8.6 5.1 1 11.4 14.1 6.6 2.3 2 8.3 8.4 4.3 3 3.7 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Padova down, Carrarese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,006 Serie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Padova at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Carrarese away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Padova, 1.03 for Carrarese. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 16:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAD 1–0 CAR · CAR 0–0 PAD

Form · last six in Serie B

PADOVA

WWDLWL4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

CARRARESE

LLDLLL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	6	+7	16
2	Sudtirol	6	+6	12
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Ascoli	6	+3	11
5	Avellino	6	+4	10
6	Modena	5	+4	10
7	Pisa	6	+3	10
8	Benevento	6	+3	10
9	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
10	Cesena	6	−1	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Arezzo	6	−7	7
13	Virtus Entella	6	+1	6
14	Cremonese	6	−2	6
15	Juve Stabia	6	−3	6
16	Empoli	6	−4	6
17	Vicenza Virtus	6	−6	5
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1