Modena v Mantova prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ModenaDrawMantova

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Modena 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Modena are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Modena 48%, draw 27%, Mantova 25%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Modena v MantovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Modena win48%

Draw27%

Mantova win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadio Alberto Braglia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Modena

Mantova

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mantova	8	+6	17
3	Modena	8	+7	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · modena winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Modena a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Modena v Mantova~~1.56 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 17~~3 v 2

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Modena win	48%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Mantova win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Modena or draw	75%	–	–
Modena clean sheet	34%	–	–
Mantova clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.4 6.6 4.1 1 10.1 13.0 6.4 2.3 2 8.8 9.3 5.0 3 4.6 4.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Modena down, Mantova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,027 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Modena at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mantova away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Modena, 1.07 for Mantova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MOD 2–1 MAN · MAN 1–3 MOD · MOD 3–1 MAN · MAN 0–0 MOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 6 Sept

MODENA

LDWWLW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

MANTOVA

DWDWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	8	+6	17
3	Modena	8	+7	16
4	Ascoli	8	+8	15
5	Benevento	8	+6	14
6	Pisa	7	+5	13
7	Sudtirol	8	+3	13
8	Avellino	8	+3	11
9	Padova	8	−3	10
10	Arezzo	8	−9	10
11	Virtus Entella	8	+1	9
12	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
13	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
14	Juve Stabia	8	+1	8
15	Cesena	8	−4	8
16	Empoli	8	−6	7
17	Carrarese	7	−1	7
18	Cremonese	8	−5	6
19	Sampdoria	8	−8	5
20	Catanzaro	8	−11	4