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Modena v Hellas Verona

Modena

3–2Full time

Hellas Verona

Serie B · SUN 11 OCT · Alberto Braglia

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Modena 3–2 Hellas Verona MODENA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Modena win~~44%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.427

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Modena win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Modena was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
12′We published Modena at 44%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–10
15′13′ and it is 1–0: Giuseppe Caso on the scoresheet for Modena. 1–0 · 72–18–10
22′13′ and it is 1–0: Giuseppe Caso on the scoresheet for Modena. 1–0 · 72–19–9
25′Hellas Verona ahead on 24′ through Daniel Mosquera. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–32–28
27′Hellas Verona ahead on 24′ through Daniel Mosquera. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–24–60
30′Daniel Mosquera scores for Hellas Verona on 28′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 15–25–61
33′We said Modena at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–61
36′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 13–25–62
47′Daniel Mosquera scores for Hellas Verona on 28′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–24–65
49′We said Modena at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–24–66
52′We said Modena at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–24–68
61′We said Modena at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 28–51–21
64′17.0 shots for Modena, 11.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–2 · 5–21–74
67′We said Modena at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
70′We said Modena at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–78
77′19.0 shots for Modena, 13.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–2 · 2–15–84
80′A red card for Hellas Verona on 77′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 1–12–87
85′85′ and it is 2–2: Daniele Montevago on the scoresheet for Modena. 2–2 · 7–87–6
88′21.0 shots for Modena, 14.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 3–95–2
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Modena win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Hellas Verona win 6%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Modena win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Modena win: 44% at kick-off, 3% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Modena · On: Wisdom Acquah · Off: Gastón Brugman Corrected
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Hellas Verona win 2%)
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Hellas Verona win 2%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Hellas Verona win 2%)
92′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 0–100–0
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Hellas Verona win 0%)
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Hellas Verona win 0%)
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
94′Modena ahead on 90′ through Andrea Belotti. 3–2. 3–2 · 100–0–0
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Hellas Verona win 0%)
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Modena 3–2 Hellas Verona · Daniele Montevago
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Modena 3–2 Hellas Verona · Andrea Belotti
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Modena win: 44% at kick-off, 100% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Modena win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Hellas Verona win 0%)
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Modena win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Modena win 4%)
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 96' Modena win: 44% at kick-off, 100% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Modena win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Hellas Verona win 0%)
96′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Andrea Belotti · Modena
FTFULL TIME Modena 3–2 Hellas Verona
FTModena 3–2 Hellas Verona · Modena win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Modena win44%

Draw28%

Hellas Verona win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:30

VenueAlberto Braglia

RefereeAlberto Ruben Arena

Line-ups

Modena

3-5-2

Hellas Verona

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Modena

Hellas Verona

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Modena	5	+4	10
9	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Modena

3-5-2

1 L. Chichizola

77 D. Tonoli

6 S. Nador

20 B. Nieling

72 G. Olzer

8 S. Santoro

16 G. Brugman

42 A. Bianco

27 P. Azzi

70 G. Ambrosino

10 G. Caso

Coach · Daniele Galloppa

Substitutes

25 · A. Laidani

22 · L. Consiglio

23 · F. Folino

34 · D. Ronco

15 · M. Odero

7 · F. Zampano

26 · A. Imputato

32 · W. Acquah

73 · P. Arnaboldi

11 · A. Belotti

29 · L. Bacchin

9 · D. Montevago

Hellas Verona

4-4-2

34 S. Perilli

4 G. Zappa

27 P. Dawidowicz

5 A. Edmundsson

71 D. De Battisti

14 D. Livramento

44 E. Iannoni

23 N. Lella

9 A. Sarr

17 A. Le Borgne

25 D. Mosquera

Coach · Marco Baroni

Substitutes

1 · N. Leali

28 · T. Slotsager

6 · D. Bradaric

37 · N. Calabrese

24 · A. Bernede

21 · A. Harroui

20 · G. Kastanos

38 · R. Akale

81 · C. Ekuban

19 · S. Mulattieri

79 · K. Sezonienko

35 · S. Cerbone

Our number · modena winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make Modena a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · modena win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Modena win	44%	47%	−3
Draw	28%	28%	0
Hellas Verona win	28%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Modena or draw	72%	75%	−3
Modena clean sheet	33%	–	–
Hellas Verona clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.0 7.3 4.8 1 9.9 13.5 6.9 2.6 2 8.0 8.9 5.0 3 3.9 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Modena down, Hellas Verona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,006 Serie B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Modena at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hellas Verona away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Modena, 1.12 for Hellas Verona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie B

MODENA

LWWLDW0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

HELLAS VERONA

LDWLW1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	6	+7	16
2	Sudtirol	6	+6	12
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Ascoli	6	+3	11
5	Avellino	6	+4	10
6	Modena	5	+4	10
7	Pisa	6	+3	10
8	Benevento	6	+3	10
9	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
10	Cesena	6	−1	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Arezzo	6	−7	7
13	Virtus Entella	6	+1	6
14	Cremonese	6	−2	6
15	Juve Stabia	6	−3	6
16	Empoli	6	−4	6
17	Vicenza Virtus	6	−6	5
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1