Modena v Cesena prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Modena 3–0 Cesena MODENA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Modena win~~48%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.229

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Modena win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Modena 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
1′KICK-OFF Modena v Cesena
4′🟥 RED CARD · 4' Cesena
6′Cesena are down to ten from 5′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 47–29–24
18′We said Modena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Modena 1–0 Cesena
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Modena win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
20′Modena ahead on 19′ through Andrea Belotti. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Mihajlo Ilic · Cesena
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–7
31′We said Modena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Modena 2–0 Cesena
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Modena win: 48% at kick-off, 94% now
34′Andrea Belotti scores for Modena on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
34′We said Modena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Modena 3–0 Cesena
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Modena win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
35′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
37′35′: Gianluca Frabotta puts it into the Cesena net, and it is 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Modena 3–0 Cesena
46′HALF-TIME Modena 3–0 Cesena
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Modena · On: Antonio Imputato · Off: Daniel Tonoli
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cesena · On: Massimiliano Mangraviti · Off: Mihajlo Ilic
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cesena · On: X. Druiventak · Off: Luca D'Andrea
54′We said Modena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Modena · On: Wisdom Acquah · Off: Alessandro Bianco
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Modena · On: Daniele Montevago · Off: Andrea Belotti
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cesena · On: Emil Bohinen · Off: Cristian Shpendi Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cesena · On: Alessandro Debenedetti · Off: Dimitri Bisoli Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Modena · On: Luca Bacchin · Off: Giuseppe Ambrosino
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cesena · On: Marco Dalla Vecchia · Off: Matteo Guidi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Modena · On: Kleis Bozhanaj · Off: Bryant Nieling
92′3–0 at the end. Our 48% on Modena comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Modena 3–0 Cesena
FTModena 3–0 Cesena · Modena win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Modena are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Modena 48%, draw 28%, Cesena 24%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Modena v CesenaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Modena win48%

Draw28%

Cesena win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAlberto Braglia

RefereeDario Madonia

Line-ups

Modena

3-5-2

Cesena

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Modena

Cesena

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Modena	7	+4	13
13	Cesena	7	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Modena

3-5-2

1 L. Chichizola

77 D. Tonoli

23 F. Folino

20 B. Nieling

6 S. Nador

72 G. Olzer

16 G. Brugman

42 A. Bianco

27 Paulo Azzi

11 A. Belotti

70 G. Ambrosino

Coach · D. Galloppa

Substitutes

29 · L. Bacchin

10 · G. Caso

22 · L. Consiglio

26 · A. Imputato

9 · D. Montevago

15 · Martino Odero

17 · K. Bozhanaj

34 · Diego Ronco

8 · S. Santoro

32 · W. Acquah

7 · F. Zampano

28 · D. Adorni

Cesena

4-3-3

1 A. Siano

15 A. Ciofi

6 M. Ilić

4 J. Gelli

7 G. Frabotta

25 D. Bisoli

18 M. Guidi

8 M. Francesconi

16 L. D'Andrea

9 C. Shpendi

80 A. Fiori

Coach · Alessandro Diamanti

Substitutes

3 · A. David

27 · M. Dalla Vecchia

11 · M. Caprini

32 · E. Bohinen

91 · A. Debenedetti

14 · X. Druiventak

13 · L. Ferretti

39 · N. Fontana

23 · V. Magni

24 · M. Mangraviti

2 · M. Natta

26 · M. Piacentini

Our number · modena winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market61%

Us48%

~~Market~~61%

We make Modena a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Modena v Cesena~~1.51 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~4 v 13

~~The market · Modena win~~61% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Modena win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Modena win	48%	61%	−13
Draw	28%	22%	+6
Cesena win	24%	17%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
Modena or draw	76%	83%	−7
Modena clean sheet	37%	–	–
Cesena clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.5 6.9 4.1 1 11.0 13.4 6.1 2.1 2 9.2 9.2 4.6 3 4.7 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Modena down, Cesena across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,020 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Modena at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cesena away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Modena, 1.00 for Cesena. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MOD 0–0 CES · CES 1–0 MOD · MOD 0–1 CES · CES 2–2 MOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 28 Aug

MODENA

WLDWWL3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

CESENA

WDDDLD2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4