Mantova v Palermo prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Mantova 0–2 Palermo PALERMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palermo win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.479

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palermo win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Palermo was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Mantova v Palermo
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Mattia Bani · Palermo
38′9 shots for Mantova, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 30–36–34
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Palermo win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Mantova 0–0 Palermo
46′Mantova have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 28–39–32
46′HALF-TIME Mantova 0–0 Palermo
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–45–29
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Palermo win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Mantova · On: Lorenzo Ignacchiti · Off: Rares Ilie
60′We said Palermo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 24–49–27
62′We published Palermo at 39%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Mantova 0–1 Palermo
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Palermo win: 39% at kick-off, 77% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Palermo win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
63′Jacopo Segre scores for Palermo on 62′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–19–77
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Palermo · On: Nahuel Estévez · Off: Filippo·Ranocchia
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Palermo win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
68′We published Palermo at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mantova · On: Ettore Gliozzi · Off: Francesco Ruocco
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mantova · On: Ismael Cajazzo · Off: Rachid Kouda
76′We published Palermo at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Palermo · On: Hernani · Off: Dennis Johnsen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Palermo · On: Alessandro Gabrielloni · Off: Joel Pohjanpalo
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Palermo win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We published Palermo at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mantova · On: Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo · Off: Tommaso Del Lungo
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Palermo · On: Patryk Peda · Off: Jacopo Segre
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Palermo · On: Luca Mazzitelli · Off: Antonio Palumbo
86′We published Palermo at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Mantova 0–2 Palermo
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Palermo win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′86′: Hernani on the scoresheet for Palermo, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′Full time, 0–2. We called Palermo at 39% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Mantova 0–2 Palermo
FTMantova 0–2 Palermo · Palermo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palermo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mantova 33%, draw 27%, Palermo 39%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Mantova v PalermoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mantova win33%

Draw27%

Palermo win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadio Danilo Martelli

RefereeLuca Zufferli

Line-ups

Mantova

3-4-2-1

Palermo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mantova

Palermo

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 10 Oct · the Italian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mantova

3-4-2-1

22 F. Bardi

5 B. Tomasevic

29 S. Cella

27 A. Castellini

58 T. Del Lungo

21 S. Trimboli

80 R. Kouda

50 F. Benaissa-Yahia

30 D. Bragantini

8 R. Ilie

19 F. Ruocco

Coach · Francesco Modesto

Substitutes

1 · L. Gemello

12 · M. Gasparini

17 · N. Radaelli

75 · E. Kospo

6 · J. Longonda

10 · D. Wieser

77 · F. Vesentini

25 · L. Ignacchiti

18 · S. Keita

11 · I. Cajazzo

9 · E. Gliozzi

Palermo

4-2-3-1

1 M. Perin

84 T. Cassandro

13 M. Bani

32 P. Ceccaroni

3 T. Augello

8 J. Segre

10 F. Ranocchia

9 D. Vavassori

5 A. Palumbo

17 D. Johnsen

20 J. Pohjanpalo

Coach · Filippo Inzaghi

Substitutes

12 · M. Nespola

14 · M. Fortin

96 · G. Magnani

29 · P. Peda

33 · A. Bozzolan

36 · L. Mazzitelli

24 · N. Estevez

23 · Hernani

6 · C. Gomes

11 · E. Gyasi

99 · A. Gabrielloni

Our number · palermo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Palermo a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mantova v Palermo~~1.34 – 1.47

~~Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~2 v 1

~~The market · Palermo win~~43% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Palermo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mantova win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Palermo win	39%	43%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Mantova or draw	61%	57%	+4
Mantova clean sheet	23%	–	–
Palermo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.3 7.8 6.5 3.2 1 7.0 12.9 8.6 4.2 2 5.4 7.8 5.7 2.8 3 2.4 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mantova down, Palermo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,010 Serie B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mantova at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Palermo away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Mantova, 1.47 for Palermo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PAL 5–2 MAN · PAL 2–1 MAN · MAN 1–1 PAL · PAL 2–2 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug

MANTOVA

WWDWDW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

PALERMO

WWWDWW1–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	6	+7	16
2	Mantova	6	+7	14
3	Modena	6	+5	13
4	Sudtirol	6	+6	12
5	Ascoli	6	+3	11
6	Avellino	6	+4	10
7	Pisa	6	+3	10
8	Benevento	6	+3	10
9	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
10	Cesena	6	−1	7
11	Padova	6	−3	7
12	Arezzo	6	−7	7
13	Empoli	6	−4	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	+1	6
15	Cremonese	6	−2	6
16	Vicenza Virtus	6	−6	5
17	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
18	Catanzaro	7	−6	4
19	Carrarese	6	−2	4
20	Juve Stabia	6	−3	2