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Hellas Verona v Catanzaro

Hellas Verona

2–2Full time

Catanzaro

Serie B · FRI 16 OCT · Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

Hellas Verona 2–2 Catanzaro HELLAS VERONA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hellas Verona win~~44%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.833

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.909

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hellas Verona win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hellas Verona was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Hellas Verona v Catanzaro
10′We said Hellas Verona at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–57
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Hellas Verona 0–1 Catanzaro
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Hellas Verona win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Catanzaro win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Hellas Verona win 21%)
11′11′: Antonio Candela on the scoresheet for Catanzaro, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–22–57
19′We said Hellas Verona at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
20′7 shots for Hellas Verona, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–58
25′Hellas Verona have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 17–24–60
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Hellas Verona 1–1 Catanzaro
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Hellas Verona win: 44% at kick-off, 39% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Catanzaro win 29%)
37′Hellas Verona have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 38–33–29
38′Hellas Verona level it on 37′ through Daniel Mosquera. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–33–29
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Dailon Livramento · Hellas Verona
44′Hellas Verona have had 18 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 37–36–28
45′SECOND HALF Hellas Verona 1–1 Catanzaro
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Catanzaro · On: Franky Tchaouna · Off: Nicola Mosti
46′HALF-TIME Hellas Verona 1–1 Catanzaro
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Hellas Verona win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Hellas Verona win 34%)
53′21 shots for Hellas Verona, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 33–41–26
56′We said Hellas Verona at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–43–25
60′Hellas Verona have had 24 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 30–46–24
62′We said Hellas Verona at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Catanzaro · On: Gabriele Alesi · Off: Samuel Giovane
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Hellas Verona · On: M. Akalé · Off: Dailon Livramento
66′We published Hellas Verona at 44%. Our model now makes it 79%. 2–1 · 79–18–4
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Hellas Verona 2–1 Catanzaro
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Hellas Verona win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Hellas Verona win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
68′Daniel Mosquera scores for Hellas Verona on 67′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
69′We published Hellas Verona at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Catanzaro · On: Simone Pafundi · Off: Federico Di Francesco
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Catanzaro · On: G. Arditi · Off: Pietro Lemmello
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hellas Verona · On: Martin Frese · Off: Amin Sarr
74′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 21–63–17
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hellas Verona 2–2 Catanzaro
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Hellas Verona win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Hellas Verona win 21%)
75′75′: Emanuele Pecorino on the scoresheet for Catanzaro, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 20–64–16
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Gabriele Alesi · Catanzaro
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hellas Verona · On: Abdou Harroui · Off: andrea le borgne
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hellas Verona · On: Tobias Slotsager · Off: Nicolo Calabrese
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hellas Verona · On: Salvatore Cerbone · Off: Davide De Battisti
81′We said Hellas Verona at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–76–11
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Hellas Verona win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
85′We said Hellas Verona at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–84–7
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Catanzaro · On: N'Dri Koffi · Off: Emanuele Pecorino
91′We said Hellas Verona at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Hellas Verona win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Marco Imperiale · Catanzaro
95′Full time, 2–2. We called Hellas Verona at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Hellas Verona 2–2 Catanzaro
FTHellas Verona 2–2 Catanzaro · Hellas Verona win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hellas Verona are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hellas Verona 44%, draw 26%, Catanzaro 31%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Hellas Verona v CatanzaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Hellas Verona win44%

Draw26%

Catanzaro win31%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMarc'Antonio Bentegodi

RefereeMario Perri

Line-ups

Hellas Verona

4-3-3

Catanzaro

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hellas Verona

Catanzaro

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Hellas Verona	6	+2	7
19	Catanzaro	6	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hellas Verona

4-3-3

34 S. Perilli

4 G. Zappa

37 N. Calabrese

27 P. Dawidowicz

71 D. De Battisti

17 A. Le Borgne

24 A. Bernede

44 E. Iannoni

14 D. Livramento

25 D. Mosquera

9 A. Sarr

Coach · Marco Baroni

Substitutes

1 · N. Leali

3 · M. Frese

28 · T. Slotsager

70 · F. Cham

23 · N. Lella

21 · A. Harroui

20 · G. Kastanos

38 · R. Akale

81 · C. Ekuban

19 · S. Mulattieri

79 · K. Sezonienko

35 · S. Cerbone

Catanzaro

3-5-2

22 M. Pigliacelli

24 M. Ruggero

4 Matias Antonini

3 M. Imperiale

27 A. Candela

98 N. Mosti

10 J. Petriccione

14 S. Giovane

29 F. Di Francesco

31 E. Pecorino

9 P. Iemmello

Coach · Giorgio Gorgone

Substitutes

1 · C. Marietta

6 · N. Postiglione

93 · M. Dorval

62 · R. Frosinini

30 · G. Alesi

26 · B. Verrengia

20 · S. Pafundi

28 · F. Tchaouna

77 · M. D'Alessandro

7 · N. Buso

19 · N. Koffi

91 · G. Arditi

Our number · hellas verona winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

44% The market55%

Us44%

~~Market~~55%

We make Hellas Verona a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hellas Verona v Catanzaro~~1.67 – 1.37

~~Form · Serie B this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~9 v 19

~~The market · Hellas Verona win~~55% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hellas Verona win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hellas Verona win	44%	55%	−11
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Catanzaro win	31%	21%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	58%	55%	+3
Both teams to score	61%	55%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	34%	+2
Hellas Verona or draw	69%	79%	−10
Hellas Verona clean sheet	26%	–	–
Catanzaro clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.0 5.6 4.5 2.1 1 7.0 11.9 7.4 3.4 2 6.7 9.0 6.1 2.8 3 3.7 5.0 3.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hellas Verona down, Catanzaro across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,009 Serie B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hellas Verona at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Catanzaro away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Hellas Verona, 1.37 for Catanzaro. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie B this season · since 21 Aug

HELLAS VERONA

LDWLWL1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–3

CATANZARO

LLLWLL2–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	6	+7	16
2	Mantova	6	+7	14
3	Modena	6	+5	13
4	Sudtirol	6	+6	12
5	Ascoli	6	+3	11
6	Avellino	6	+4	10
7	Pisa	6	+3	10
8	Benevento	6	+3	10
9	Hellas Verona	6	+2	7
10	Padova	6	−3	7
11	Cesena	6	−1	7
12	Arezzo	6	−7	7
13	Empoli	6	−4	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	+1	6
15	Cremonese	6	−2	6
16	Vicenza Virtus	6	−6	5
17	Carrarese	6	−2	4
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	6	−6	3
20	Juve Stabia	6	−3	2