Empoli v Vicenza Virtus

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Empoli win at 47%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Empoli 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Empoli v Vicenza Virtus
4. 19′We said Empoli at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
5. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Empoli 0–1 Vicenza Virtus
6. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Empoli win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
7. 19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Vicenza Virtus win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Empoli win 44%)
8. 20′A goal for Vicenza Virtus on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–56
9. 24′We said Empoli at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–58
11. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Empoli win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
12. 41′We said Empoli at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
13. 45′SECOND HALF Empoli 0–1 Vicenza Virtus
14. 46′HALF-TIME Empoli 0–1 Vicenza Virtus
15. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Empoli · On: Steven Shpendi · Off: Joseph Ceesay Corrected
16. 55′We said Empoli at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
17. 56′Empoli are down to ten from 55′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 9–24–67
18. 56′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Marco Curto · Empoli
19. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Empoli win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
20. 62′We said Empoli at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–50–20
21. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Empoli 1–1 Vicenza Virtus
22. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Empoli win: 47% at kick-off, 30% now
23. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Vicenza Virtus win 69%)
24. 63′62′: Cristian Cauz on the scoresheet for Empoli, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–51–19
25. 64′We said Empoli at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
26. 64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Empoli
27. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Empoli win: 47% at kick-off, 6% now
28. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Vicenza Virtus win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 52%)
29. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Riccardo Marchizza · Vicenza Virtus
30. 70′We said Empoli at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
31. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Empoli · On: Filippo Di Stefano · Off: Edoardo Saporiti
32. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Empoli · On: Lapo Deli · Off: Duccio Degli Innocenti
33. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Empoli · On: Luca Belardinelli · Off: Filippo Bandinelli
34. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Lapo Deli · Empoli
35. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vicenza Virtus · On: Silvio Merkaj · Off: Nicola Rauti
36. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vicenza Virtus · On: Filippo Alessio · Off: Claudio Morra
37. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vicenza Virtus · On: Thomas Sandon · Off: Riccardo Marchizza
38. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' L. Caferri · Vicenza Virtus
39. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Empoli · On: Matteo Egan · Off: Luca Magnino
40. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vicenza Virtus · On: Loris Zonta · Off: Mattia Valoti
41. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Empoli 0–2 Vicenza Virtus
42. 86′85′: Giulio Pellizzari on the scoresheet for Vicenza Virtus, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
43. 93′0–2 at the end. Our 47% on Empoli misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
44. FTFULL TIME Empoli 0–2 Vicenza Virtus
45. FTEmpoli 0–2 Vicenza Virtus · Empoli win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.