Cremonese v Benevento prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CremoneseDrawBenevento

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cremonese 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cremonese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cremonese 43%, draw 29%, Benevento 28%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Cremonese v BeneventoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cremonese win43%

Draw29%

Benevento win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadio Giovanni Zini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cremonese

Benevento

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Benevento	8	+6	14
18	Cremonese	8	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cremonese winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Cremonese a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cremonese v Benevento~~1.39 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~18 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cremonese win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Benevento win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Cremonese or draw	72%	–	–
Cremonese clean sheet	35%	–	–
Benevento clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.0 8.1 5.0 1 10.7 13.7 6.7 2.4 2 8.2 8.6 4.6 3 3.8 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cremonese down, Benevento across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,027 Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cremonese at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Benevento away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Cremonese, 1.07 for Benevento. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–1 CRE · CRE 1–1 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept

CREMONESE

WDDDLL3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1

BENEVENTO

LWWWDW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	8	+6	17
3	Modena	8	+7	16
4	Ascoli	8	+8	15
5	Benevento	8	+6	14
6	Pisa	7	+5	13
7	Sudtirol	8	+3	13
8	Avellino	8	+3	11
9	Padova	8	−3	10
10	Arezzo	8	−9	10
11	Virtus Entella	8	+1	9
12	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
13	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
14	Juve Stabia	8	+1	8
15	Cesena	8	−4	8
16	Empoli	8	−6	7
17	Carrarese	7	−1	7
18	Cremonese	8	−5	6
19	Sampdoria	8	−8	5
20	Catanzaro	8	−11	4