Cesena v Empoli prediction · Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CesenaDrawEmpoli

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cesena 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cesena are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cesena 44%, draw 28%, Empoli 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Cesena v EmpoliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Cesena win44%

Draw28%

Empoli win28%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadio Dino Manuzzi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cesena

Empoli

3Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 23 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
15	Empoli	8	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cesena winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Cesena a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cesena v Empoli~~1.47 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~13 v 15

~~The market · Cesena win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cesena win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cesena win	44%	44%	0
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Empoli win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Cesena or draw	72%	72%	0
Cesena clean sheet	33%	–	–
Empoli clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 8.8 7.2 4.8 1 9.7 13.5 6.9 2.6 2 8.0 8.9 5.0 3 4.0 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cesena down, Empoli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,020 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cesena at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Empoli away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Cesena, 1.13 for Empoli. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EMP 1–1 CES · CES 0–1 EMP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 5 Sept

CESENA

DDDLDL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

EMPOLI

WLLLDL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4