Cesena v Avellino

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cesena win at 43%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Cesena was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
3. 1′KICK-OFF Cesena v Avellino
4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Brando Moruzzi · Avellino
5. 29′Cesena have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 39–34–27
6. 38′15 shots for Cesena, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 37–37–26
7. 42′17 shots for Cesena, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–39–26
8. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cesena win 35%)
9. 45′A red card for Cesena on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 35–40–25
10. 45′HALF-TIME Cesena 0–0 Avellino
11. 45′🟥 RED CARD · 45+1' Alessandro Diamanti · Cesena
12. 45′SECOND HALF Cesena 0–0 Avellino
13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cesena · On: Matteo Guidi · Off: Riccardo Pagano
14. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Cesena win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
15. 50′We published Cesena at 43%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
16. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cesena 1–0 Avellino
17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Cesena win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
18. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Cesena win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
19. 52′51′: Antonio Fiori on the scoresheet for Cesena, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–5
20. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Avellino · On: Giacomo Faticanti · Off: Luca Palmiero
21. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Avellino · On: L. Di Maggio · Off: Martin Palumbo
22. 62′We published Cesena at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
23. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cesena · On: Alessandro Debenedetti · Off: Antonio Fiori
24. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cesena · On: Massimiliano Mangraviti · Off: Luca D'Andrea
25. 67′We said Cesena at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–18
26. 67′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 24–57–18
27. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Cesena 1–1 Avellino
28. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Cesena win: 43% at kick-off, 24% now
29. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Cesena win 24%)
30. 68′Avellino level it on 67′ through Armando Izzo. 1–1. 1–1 · 24–58–18
31. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Cesena win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
32. 74′We said Cesena at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
33. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Avellino · On: Andrea Favilli · Off: Walid Cheddira
34. 79′We said Cesena at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
35. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Cesena win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
36. 84′We said Cesena at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–7
37. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cesena · On: Matteo Piacentini · Off: Mihajlo Ilic
38. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Emil Bohinen · Cesena
39. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Avellino · On: Dimitrios Sounas · Off: Michele Besaggio
40. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Avellino · On: Tommaso Biasci · Off: Raffaele Russo
41. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cesena · On: Matteo Francesconi · Off: Emil Bohinen
42. 92′We said Cesena at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–94–2
43. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Cesena win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
44. 96′Full time, 1–1. We called Cesena at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
45. FTFULL TIME Cesena 1–1 Avellino
46. FTCesena 1–1 Avellino · Cesena win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.