Catanzaro v Ascoli prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Catanzaro 1–6 Ascoli CATANZARO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Catanzaro win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.677

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Catanzaro win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Catanzaro 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Catanzaro v Ascoli
17′We said Catanzaro at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–9
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Catanzaro 1–0 Ascoli
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Catanzaro win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
18′Catanzaro score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–9
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Catanzaro 1–1 Ascoli
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Catanzaro win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
23′Ascoli level it on 21′ through Gabriele Gori. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–33–27
31′We said Catanzaro at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–2 · 15–24–61
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Catanzaro 1–2 Ascoli
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Catanzaro win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Ascoli win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Catanzaro win 39%)
32′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 15–24–61
33′We said Catanzaro at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–24–61
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Catanzaro win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
34′Gennao Acampora scores for Ascoli on 32′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 14–24–62
35′We said Catanzaro at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–3 · 4–10–86
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Catanzaro 1–3 Ascoli
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Catanzaro win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
36′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 4–10–86
37′36′: Federico Gattoni on the scoresheet for Ascoli, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 3–10–87
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Federico Gattoni · Ascoli
45′SECOND HALF Catanzaro 1–4 Ascoli
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ascoli · On: Tommaso Milanese · Off: Gennao Acampora
46′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–2–98
46′Ascoli ahead on 45′ through Giovanni Corradini. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–2–98
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Catanzaro 1–4 Ascoli
46′HALF-TIME Catanzaro 1–4 Ascoli
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Catanzaro · On: Marco D'Alessandro · Off: N'Dri Koffi
52′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Catanzaro 1–5 Ascoli
54′Tommaso Milanese scores for Ascoli on 53′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Catanzaro · On: Niccolò Postiglione · Off: Marco Ruggero
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Catanzaro · On: Nicola Mosti · Off: Simone Pafundi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Catanzaro · On: Nicolo Buso · Off: Federico Di Francesco
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ascoli · On: Sergiu Perciun · Off: Giovanni Corradini
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ascoli · On: Matteo Ricci · Off: Samuele Damiani
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ascoli · On: Giacomo De Pieri · Off: Andrea·Silipo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ascoli · On: Lorenzo Venuti · Off: Andrea Oliveri
75′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–6 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Catanzaro 1–6 Ascoli
77′76′: Gabriele Gori on the scoresheet for Ascoli, making it 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Catanzaro · On: Gabriele Alesi · Off: Franky Tchaouna
92′1–6 at the end. Our 44% on Catanzaro misses, and the record keeps it. 1–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Catanzaro 1–6 Ascoli
FTCatanzaro 1–6 Ascoli · Catanzaro win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Catanzaro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Catanzaro 44%, draw 29%, Ascoli 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Catanzaro v AscoliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Catanzaro win44%

Draw29%

Ascoli win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStadio Nicola Ceravolo

RefereeAndrea Calzavara

Line-ups

Catanzaro

3-4-2-1

Ascoli

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Catanzaro

Ascoli

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Catanzaro

3-4-2-1

22 M. Pigliacelli

24 M. Ruggero

4 Matias Antonini

3 M. Imperiale

27 A. Candela

28 F. Tchaouna

10 J. Petriccione

29 F. Di Francesco

20 S. Pafundi

9 P. Iemmello

19 N. Koffi

Coach · Giorgio Gorgone

Substitutes

91 · G. Arditi

30 · G. Alesi

7 · N. Buso

21 · F. Cassa

77 · M. D'Alessandro

93 · M. Dorval

62 · R. Frosinini

1 · C. Marietta

98 · N. Mosti

6 · Niccolò Postiglione

80 · F. Reita

26 · B. Verrengia

Ascoli

4-2-3-1

1 S. Vitale

14 A. Oliveri

32 F. Gattoni

33 N. Rizzo

19 A. Guiébré

8 G. Corradini

4 S. Damiani

7 A. Silipo

13 G. Acampora

15 S. D'Uffizi

35 G. Gori

Coach · Francesco Tomei

Substitutes

99 · Matteo Brunori

9 · A. Chakir

45 · G. Crespi

30 · M. Curado

21 · G. De Pieri

18 · L. Lo Scalzo

62 · T. Milanese

3 · M. Nicoletti

11 · S. Perciun

27 · M. Ricci

5 · L. Venuti

77 · D. Bolsius

Our number · catanzaro winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Catanzaro a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Catanzaro v Ascoli~~1.46 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~20 v 6

~~The market · Catanzaro win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Catanzaro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Catanzaro win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	29%	29%	0
Ascoli win	27%	33%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	54%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	33%	−7
Catanzaro or draw	73%	67%	+6
Catanzaro clean sheet	34%	–	–
Ascoli clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.2 7.3 4.7 1 10.1 13.5 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.9 4.9 3 4.0 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Catanzaro down, Ascoli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,020 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Catanzaro at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ascoli away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Catanzaro, 1.10 for Ascoli. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAT 3–2 ASC · ASC 1–0 CAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug

CATANZARO

LLWLLD1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

ASCOLI

DWLWDD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4