Carrarese v Arezzo
CarrareseArezzoSerie B · WED 28 OCT · Stadio dei Marmi
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Carrarese are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Carrarese 46%, draw 28%, Arezzo 26%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Carrarese win46%Arezzo win26%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 9
VenueStadio dei Marmi
Match timeline
All events
CarrareseMINArezzoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Carrarese
Arezzo
Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B
Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | −9 | 10 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 7 | −1 | 7 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Carrarese a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 46% | 39% | +7 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | −1 |
| Arezzo win | 26% | 32% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – | – |
| Carrarese or draw | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Arezzo clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug
CARRARESE
AREZZO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Mantova | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 3 |  Modena | 8 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Ascoli | 8 | +8 | 15 |
| 5 |  Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 |  Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 |  Padova | 8 | −3 | 10 |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | −9 | 10 |
| 11 |  Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Vicenza Virtus | 8 | −4 | 9 |
| 13 |  Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 15 |  Cesena | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 16 |  Empoli | 8 | −6 | 7 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 7 | −1 | 7 |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 8 | −5 | 6 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 8 | −8 | 5 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 8 | −11 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.