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Benevento v Cesena

Benevento

2–0Full time

Cesena

Serie B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Benevento 2–0 Cesena BENEVENTO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Benevento win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.403

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Benevento win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Benevento 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–27
2′KICK-OFF Benevento v Cesena
24′Benevento ahead on 25′ through Antonis Siatounis. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' Benevento 1–0 Cesena
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Benevento win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
26′We said Benevento at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Benevento win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Christian Kouan · Benevento
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cesena · On: Matteo Guidi · Off: Luca D'Andrea Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cesena · On: Antonio Fiori · Off: Marco Dalla Vecchia
46′SECOND HALF Benevento 1–0 Cesena
48′Dimitri Bisoli scores for Cesena on 51′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–5
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Benevento 1–1 Cesena · Dimitri Bisoli (assist Luca D'Andrea)
59′We said Benevento at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–3
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Benevento · On: Christian Dalle Mura · Off: Davide Lamesta
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cesena · On: Alessandro Debenedetti · Off: Luca D'Andrea
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cesena · On: X. Druiventak · Off: Riccardo Pagano
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cesena · On: Vittorio Magni · Off: Andrea Ciofi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Benevento · On: Luigi Cherubini · Off: David Okereke
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Benevento · On: Raffaele Romano · Off: Edoardo·Pierozzi
85′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Luigi Cherubini · Benevento
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Benevento · On: Pier Luigi·Simonetti · Off: Mattia Maita
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Raffaele Romano · Benevento
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Stefano Scognamillo · Benevento
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Francesco Salvemini · Benevento
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Benevento 2–0 Cesena · Luigi Cherubini
FTFULL TIME Benevento 2–0 Cesena
FTBenevento 2–0 Cesena · Benevento win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Benevento win46%

Draw29%

Cesena win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Referee · Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Benevento

4-5-1

26 G. Vannucchi

77 E. Pierozzi

14 S. Scognamillo

23 P. Saio

20 P. Beruatto

11 D. Lamesta

6 A. Siatounis

8 M. Maita

28 C. Kouan

29 D. Okereke

9 F. Salvemini

Coach · Antonio Floro Flores

Substitutes

22 · M. Esposito

5 · L. Caldirola

15 · C. Dalle Mura

38 · A. Talia

25 · R. Romano

18 · P. Simonetti

16 · M. Mannini

32 · G. Mignani

10 · L. Cherubini

90 · S. Verdi

93 · M. Tumminello

21 · E. Schimmenti

Cesena

4-3-3

1 A. Siano

15 A. Ciofi

6 M. Ilic

24 M. Mangraviti

7 G. Frabotta

25 D. Bisoli

32 E. Bohinen

10 R. Pagano

16 L. D'Andrea

9 C. Shpendi

27 M. Dalla Vecchia

Coach · Alessandro Diamanti

Substitutes

39 · N. Fontana

26 · M. Piacentini

2 · M. Natta

3 · A. David

4 · J. Gelli

23 · V. Magni

18 · M. Guidi

34 · M. Lontani

8 · M. Francesconi

80 · A. Fiori

14 · X. Druiventak

91 · A. Debenedetti

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Benevento

4-5-1

26 G. Vannucchi

77 E. Pierozzi

14 S. Scognamillo

23 P. Saio

20 P. Beruatto

11 D. Lamesta

6 A. Siatounis

8 M. Maita

28 C. Kouan

29 D. Okereke

9 F. Salvemini

Coach · Antonio Floro Flores

Substitutes

22 · M. Esposito

5 · L. Caldirola

15 · C. Dalle Mura

38 · A. Talia

25 · R. Romano

18 · P. Simonetti

16 · M. Mannini

32 · G. Mignani

10 · L. Cherubini

90 · S. Verdi

93 · M. Tumminello

21 · E. Schimmenti

Cesena

4-3-3

1 A. Siano

15 A. Ciofi

6 M. Ilic

24 M. Mangraviti

7 G. Frabotta

25 D. Bisoli

32 E. Bohinen

10 R. Pagano

16 L. D'Andrea

9 C. Shpendi

27 M. Dalla Vecchia

Coach · Alessandro Diamanti

Substitutes

39 · N. Fontana

26 · M. Piacentini

2 · M. Natta

3 · A. David

4 · J. Gelli

23 · V. Magni

18 · M. Guidi

34 · M. Lontani

8 · M. Francesconi

80 · A. Fiori

14 · X. Druiventak

91 · A. Debenedetti

Our number · benevento winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Benevento a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · benevento win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benevento win	46%	48%	−3
Draw	29%	27%	+1
Cesena win	26%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	52%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
Benevento or draw	74%	76%	−1
Benevento clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cesena clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.6 7.5 4.5 1 11.0 13.5 6.4 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benevento down, Cesena across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 Serie B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Benevento at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cesena away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Benevento, 1.03 for Cesena. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie B

BENEVENTO

LLDLWW2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

CESENA

LDWDDD3–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	5	+5	13
2	Sudtirol	5	+6	11
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Avellino	6	+4	10
5	Modena	5	+4	10
6	Ascoli	5	+3	10
7	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
8	Cesena	5	+1	7
9	Benevento	5	+1	7
10	Pisa	5	0	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Empoli	5	−2	6
13	Arezzo	5	−7	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	+1	5
15	Cremonese	5	−2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	−3	5
17	Juve Stabia	5	−3	5
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1