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Avellino v Sampdoria

Avellino

4–1Full time

Sampdoria

Serie B · FRI 9 OCT · Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria AVELLINO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avellino win~~42%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.505

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.635

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avellino win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Avellino was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
1′KICK-OFF Avellino v Sampdoria
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Avellino 1–0 Sampdoria
12′12′ and it is 1–0: Walid Cheddira on the scoresheet for Avellino. 1–0 · 71–19–10
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Avellino 1–0 Sampdoria · Walid Cheddira
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Avellino win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
14′We published Avellino at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Avellino win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
17′Sampdoria ahead on 18′ through Lorenzo Insigne. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–31–28
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Avellino 1–1 Sampdoria · Walid Cheddira
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Avellino win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Avellino 1–1 Sampdoria · Lorenzo Insigne
19′Martin Palumbo scores for Avellino on 20′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–19–9
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Avellino 2–1 Sampdoria · Lorenzo Insigne
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Avellino win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
19′⚽ GOAL · 20' Avellino 2–1 Sampdoria · Martin Palumbo
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Avellino 3–1 Sampdoria · Martin Palumbo
24′We published Avellino at 42%. Our model now makes it 91%. 3–1 · 91–7–2
24′24′ and it is 3–1: Raffaele Russo on the scoresheet for Avellino. 3–1 · 91–7–2
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Avellino win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Avellino 3–1 Sampdoria · Raffaele Russo
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Avellino win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria · Raffaele Russo
29′Avellino ahead on 29′ through Michele Besaggio. 4–1. 4–1 · 98–1–0
29′We published Avellino at 42%. Our model now makes it 98%. 4–1 · 98–1–0
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria · Michele Besaggio
32′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 98–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sampdoria · On: Alex Ferrari · Off: Yann Karamoh Corrected
46′HALF-TIME Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Avellino · On: Andrea Favilli · Off: Walid Cheddira Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Avellino · On: Giacomo Faticanti · Off: Luca Palmiero Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sampdoria · On: Gennaro Tutino · Off: Yari Verschaeren Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sampdoria · On: Tjas Begic · Off: Tobias Lauritsen Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sampdoria · On: Fabio Depaoli · Off: Liam Henderson Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Michael Venturi · Avellino
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Avellino · On: Dimitrios Sounas · Off: Martin Palumbo Corrected
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Avellino 5–1 Sampdoria · Michele Besaggio
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Avellino · On: Tommaso Biasci · Off: Raffaele Russo Corrected
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Alex Ferrari · Sampdoria
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Avellino 5–1 Sampdoria · Tommaso Biasci
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Avellino · On: Marco Sala · Off: Brando Moruzzi Corrected
92′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Armando Izzo · Avellino
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Michele Besaggio · Avellino
FTFULL TIME Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria
FTAvellino 4–1 Sampdoria · Avellino win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Avellino win42%

Draw30%

Sampdoria win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Avellino

3-5-2

50 T. Martinelli

4 A. Izzo

23 M. Venturi

56 P. Enrici

2 F. Missori

20 M. Palumbo

6 L. Palmiero

39 M. Besaggio

27 B. Moruzzi

10 R. Russo

9 W. Cheddira

Coach · Alessandro Nesta

Substitutes

1 · A. Iannarilli

5 · A. Di Bitonto

44 · L. Simic

3 · M. Sala

24 · D. Sounas

30 · E. Adamo

16 · G. Faticanti

18 · T. Berenbruch

14 · T. Biasci

99 · A. Favilli

7 · L. Pandolfi

77 · S. Di Paolo

Sampdoria

4-3-2-1

1 P. Vindahl

29 A. Di Pardo

3 S. Gartenmann

15 F. Delli Carri

7 M. Cicconi

6 L. Henderson

45 A. Makoumbou

16 Y. Verschaeren

14 Y. Karamoh

10 L. Insigne

9 T. Lauritsen

Coach · Bernardo Corradi

Substitutes

96 · S. Massolo

12 · A. Krastev

43 · K. Mbabu

25 · A. Ferrari

13 · L. Ravanelli

23 · F. Depaoli

42 · L. Cosi

11 · T. Begic

99 · G. Tutino

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Avellino

3-5-2

50 T. Martinelli

4 A. Izzo

23 M. Venturi

56 P. Enrici

2 F. Missori

20 M. Palumbo

6 L. Palmiero

39 M. Besaggio

27 B. Moruzzi

10 R. Russo

9 W. Cheddira

Coach · Alessandro Nesta

Substitutes

1 · A. Iannarilli

5 · A. Di Bitonto

44 · L. Simic

3 · M. Sala

24 · D. Sounas

30 · E. Adamo

16 · G. Faticanti

18 · T. Berenbruch

14 · T. Biasci

99 · A. Favilli

7 · L. Pandolfi

77 · S. Di Paolo

Sampdoria

4-3-2-1

1 P. Vindahl

29 A. Di Pardo

3 S. Gartenmann

15 F. Delli Carri

7 M. Cicconi

6 L. Henderson

45 A. Makoumbou

16 Y. Verschaeren

14 Y. Karamoh

10 L. Insigne

9 T. Lauritsen

Coach · Bernardo Corradi

Substitutes

96 · S. Massolo

12 · A. Krastev

43 · K. Mbabu

25 · A. Ferrari

13 · L. Ravanelli

23 · F. Depaoli

42 · L. Cosi

11 · T. Begic

99 · G. Tutino

Our number · avellino winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

42% The market35%

Us42%

~~Market~~35%

We make Avellino a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · avellino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avellino win	42%	35%	+7
Draw	30%	30%	−1
Sampdoria win	28%	35%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	48%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Avellino or draw	72%	65%	+6
Avellino clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sampdoria clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.5 8.5 5.1 1 11.1 13.9 6.7 2.4 2 8.2 8.5 4.5 3 3.7 3.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avellino down, Sampdoria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,999 Serie B matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avellino at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sampdoria away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Avellino, 1.05 for Sampdoria. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAM 2–1 AVE · AVE 2–1 SAM

Form · last six in Serie B

AVELLINO

LLWWDL0–3 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

SAMPDORIA

LDLLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	5	+5	13
2	Sudtirol	5	+6	11
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Modena	5	+4	10
5	Ascoli	5	+3	10
6	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
7	Avellino	5	+1	7
8	Cesena	5	+1	7
9	Benevento	5	+1	7
10	Pisa	5	0	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Empoli	5	−2	6
13	Arezzo	5	−7	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	+1	5
15	Cremonese	5	−2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	−3	5
17	Juve Stabia	5	−3	5
18	Sampdoria	5	−4	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1