Avellino v Padova prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Avellino 0–1 Padova AVELLINO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avellino win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avellino win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Avellino was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Avellino v Padova
19′We said Avellino at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Avellino 0–1 Padova
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Avellino win: 44% at kick-off, 17% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Padova win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Avellino win 41%)
20′A goal for Padova on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
31′We said Avellino at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Avellino win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Giovanni·Giunti · Padova
43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Pietro Fusi · Padova
45′SECOND HALF Avellino 0–1 Padova
46′HALF-TIME Avellino 0–1 Padova
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Avellino · On: L. Di Maggio · Off: Luca Palmiero
49′We said Avellino at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
56′13 shots for Avellino, 8 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
62′Avellino have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 5–22–73
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Avellino · On: Andrea Favilli · Off: Walid Cheddira
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Avellino · On: Armando Izzo · Off: Alessandro Di Bitonto
66′We said Avellino at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Avellino win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Padova · On: Kevin Varas · Off: Pietro Fusi
74′21 shots for Avellino, 8 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–81
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Avellino · On: Tommaso Biasci · Off: Martin Palumbo
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Padova · On: Mattia Bortolussi · Off: Gabriele Artistico
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Padova · On: Marco Pompetti · Off: Giovanni·Giunti
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Avellino · On: S. Di Paolo · Off: Brando Moruzzi
86′Avellino have had 24 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–93
93′Avellino have had 28 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Padova · On: Alexander Seghetti · Off: Luca Moro
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Padova · On: Nicolas Galazzi · Off: Emanuele Zuelli
94′Full time, 0–1. We called Avellino at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Avellino 0–1 Padova
FTAvellino 0–1 Padova · Avellino win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Avellino are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avellino 44%, draw 29%, Padova 27%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Avellino v PadovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Avellino win44%

Draw29%

Padova win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenuePartenio-Adriano Lombardi

RefereeMaria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Line-ups

Avellino

3-5-2

Padova

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avellino

Padova

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
16	Padova	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Avellino

3-5-2

50 T. Martinelli

5 A. Di Bitonto

23 M. Venturi

56 P. Enrici

2 F. Missori

20 M. Palumbo

6 L. Palmiero

39 M. Besaggio

27 B. Moruzzi

9 W. Cheddira

10 R. Russo

Coach · A. Nesta

Substitutes

29 · T. Cancellotti

14 · T. Biasci

8 · L. Di Maggio

77 · S. Di Paolo

16 · G. Faticanti

99 · A. Favilli

1 · A. Iannarilli

4 · A. Izzo

7 · L. Pandolfi

3 · M. Sala

24 · D. Sounas

30 · E. Adamo

Padova

3-5-2

22 A. Sorrentino

27 Alessandro Dellavalle

32 F. Sgarbi

5 M. Lovato

24 L. Carissoni

8 P. Fusi

21 E. Zuelli

6 G. Giunti

17 A. Capelli

9 L. Moro

90 G. Artistico

Coach · N. Calabro

Substitutes

72 · C. Faedo

20 · M. Bortolussi

34 · M. Cocchi

23 · F. Di Mariano

25 · N. Galazzi

1 · L. Mouquet

58 · C. Pastina

12 · S. Scaglia

11 · A. Seghetti

18 · E. Silletti

7 · K. Varas

Our number · avellino winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Avellino a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avellino v Padova~~1.41 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~7 v 16

~~The market · Avellino win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Avellino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avellino win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Padova win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%	0
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Avellino or draw	73%	73%	0
Avellino clean sheet	35%	–	–
Padova clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.8 7.7 4.8 1 10.6 13.8 6.6 2.4 2 8.4 8.8 4.7 3 4.0 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avellino down, Padova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,020 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avellino at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Padova away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Avellino, 1.06 for Padova. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AVE 1–0 PAD · PAD 2–2 AVE · AVE 0–1 PAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 29 Aug

AVELLINO

WWDLWD3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 1–1

PADOVA

DLWLLL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4