Ascoli v Empoli prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Ascoli 1–1 Empoli ASCOLI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ascoli win~~46%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.771

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.831

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ascoli win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ascoli 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–25
1′KICK-OFF Ascoli v Empoli
14′Empoli score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–24–56
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ascoli 0–1 Empoli
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Ascoli win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Empoli win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Ascoli win 20%)
15′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Ascoli win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
27′Ascoli level it on 26′ through Nicholas Rizzo. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–35–24
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ascoli 1–1 Empoli
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Ascoli win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Ascoli win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Empoli win 24%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ascoli win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ascoli win 36%)
45′SECOND HALF Ascoli 1–1 Empoli
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Empoli · On: Filippo Bandinelli · Off: Edoardo Biondini
47′HALF-TIME Ascoli 1–1 Empoli
48′Ascoli level it on 26′ through Nicholas Rizzo. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–44–22
49′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–21
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Empoli · On: Lapo Deli · Off: Gerard Yepes
59′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
61′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 28–53–18
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ascoli · On: Don Bolsius · Off: Gennao Acampora
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ascoli · On: amine chakir · Off: Matteo Brunori
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ascoli · On: Giacomo De Pieri · Off: Andrea·Silipo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ascoli · On: Tommaso Milanese · Off: Andrea Oliveri
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Empoli · On: Steven Shpendi · Off: Bogdan Popov
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Ascoli win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
68′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–16
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ascoli · On: Federico Gattoni · Off: Marcos Curado
74′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Ascoli win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
79′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
84′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Empoli · On: Matteo Egan · Off: Joseph Ceesay
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Empoli · On: Luca Belardinelli · Off: Edoardo Saporiti
88′Empoli have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 6–90–4
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Ascoli win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
90′We said Ascoli at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Luca Magnino · Empoli
92′16 shots for Empoli, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 3–95–2
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Abdoul Guiebre · Ascoli
94′1–1 at the end. Our 46% on Ascoli misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Ascoli 1–1 Empoli
FTAscoli 1–1 Empoli · Ascoli win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ascoli are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ascoli 46%, draw 29%, Empoli 25%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Ascoli v EmpoliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ascoli win46%

Draw29%

Empoli win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCino e Lillo Del Duca

RefereeEdoardo Manedo Mazzoni

Line-ups

Ascoli

4-2-3-1

Empoli

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ascoli

Empoli

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Italian Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ascoli	6	+3	11
13	Empoli	6	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ascoli

4-2-3-1

1 S. Vitale

14 A. Oliveri

30 M. Curado

33 N. Rizzo

19 A. Guiebre

8 G. Corradini

4 S. Damiani

7 A. Silipo

13 G. Acampora

15 S. D'Uffizi

99 M. Brunori

Coach · Francesco Tomei

Substitutes

45 · G. M. Crespi

5 · L. Venuti

3 · M. Nicoletti

32 · F. Gattoni

21 · G. De Pieri

18 · L. Lo Scalzo

27 · M. Ricci

62 · T. Milanese

11 · S. Perciun

77 · D. Bolsius

35 · G. Gori

9 · M. A. Chakir

Empoli

3-5-2

12 J. Seghetti

8 L. Magnino

25 M. Curto

33 C. Cauz

98 K. Zedadka

39 E. Biondini

21 G. Yepes

10 E. Saporiti

91 N. Corrado

77 B. Popov

15 J. Ceesay

Coach · Matteo Andreoletti

Substitutes

1 · S. Perisan

13 · E. Filippis

28 · G. Indragoli

36 · D. Bembnista

23 · F. Bandinelli

57 · L. Belardinelli

5 · D. Degli Innocenti

44 · L. Deli

35 · M. Egan

11 · S. Shpendi

16 · F. Meznar

Our number · ascoli winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market50%

Us46%

~~Market~~50%

We make Ascoli a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ascoli v Empoli~~1.42 – 0.98

~~Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 6~~5 v 13

~~The market · Ascoli win~~50% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ascoli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ascoli win	46%	50%	−4
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Empoli win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Ascoli or draw	75%	77%	−2
Ascoli clean sheet	38%	–	–
Empoli clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.5 7.8 4.4 1 11.6 13.7 6.1 2.0 2 9.0 8.8 4.3 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ascoli down, Empoli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,010 Serie B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Ascoli at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Empoli away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Ascoli, 0.98 for Empoli. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie B this season · since 22 Aug

ASCOLI

WDWLWD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

EMPOLI

WLWLLL1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	6	+7	16
2	Mantova	6	+7	14
3	Modena	6	+5	13
4	Sudtirol	6	+6	12
5	Ascoli	6	+3	11
6	Avellino	6	+4	10
7	Pisa	6	+3	10
8	Benevento	6	+3	10
9	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
10	Cesena	6	−1	7
11	Padova	6	−3	7
12	Arezzo	6	−7	7
13	Empoli	6	−4	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	+1	6
15	Cremonese	6	−2	6
16	Vicenza Virtus	6	−6	5
17	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
18	Catanzaro	7	−6	4
19	Carrarese	6	−2	4
20	Juve Stabia	6	−3	2