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Arezzo v Cremonese

Arezzo

0–0Full time

Cremonese

Serie B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Città di Arezzo

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:01

Arezzo 0–0 Cremonese CREMONESE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cremonese win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.788

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.747

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cremonese win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cremonese 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
2′KICK-OFF Arezzo v Cremonese
13′Little has changed for our model: Cremonese 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
45′SECOND HALF Arezzo 0–0 Cremonese
46′HALF-TIME Arezzo 0–0 Cremonese
47′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Alberto Cerri · Arezzo
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Cremonese · On: Tommaso Barbieri · Off: Michele Collocolo Corrected
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Cremonese · On: Tommaso Berti · Off: Marco Nasti Corrected
58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Arezzo
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Giuseppe Pezzella · Cremonese
58′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Giuseppe Pezzella · Cremonese
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Arezzo · On: Alessandro Arena · Off: Emiliano Pattarello Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Arezzo · On: Leonardo Mancuso · Off: Alberto Cerri Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Arezzo · On: Camillo Tavernelli · Off: Giuseppe Kevin Leone Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cremonese · On: Simone Lottici Tessadri · Off: Jari Vandeputte Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cremonese · On: Adin Ličina · Off: Alberto Grassi Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arezzo · On: Shaka Mawuli Eklu · Off: Luca Chierico Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cremonese · On: Manuel De Luca · Off: Salvatore Elia Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arezzo · On: Pietro Cianci · Off: mattia sala Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Andrea Fulignati · Cremonese
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Fabio Pecchia · Cremonese
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Alessandro Arena · Arezzo
FTFULL TIME Arezzo 0–0 Cremonese
FTArezzo 0–0 Cremonese · Cremonese win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arezzo win32%

Draw28%

Cremonese win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:30

Venue · Stadio Città di Arezzo

Referee · Andrea Zanotti

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arezzo

4-1-4-1

14 A. Nunziante

6 A. Renzi

13 M. Gilli

4 M. Coppolaro

37 S. Righetti

24 L. Chierico

10 E. Pattarello

16 M. Sala

17 A. Ionita

7 K. Leone

9 A. Cerri

Coach · Cristian Bucchi

Substitutes

90 · A. Seculin

67 · G. M. Ferrari

5 · J. Illanes

32 · A. Cagnano

2 · M. Mena

33 · D. Mancini

23 · M. Viviani

8 · S. M. Eklu

21 · C. Tavernelli

11 · L. Mancuso

71 · P. Cianci

30 · A. Arena

Cremonese

4-2-3-1

1 A. Fulignati

6 F. Baschirotto

15 M. Bianchetti

5 S. Luperto

3 G. Pezzella

33 A. Grassi

27 J. Vandeputte

18 M. Collocolo

2 M. Thorsby

71 S. Elia

19 M. Nasti

Coach · Fabio Pecchia

Substitutes

12 · M. Festa

22 · F. Agazzi

13 · Fellipe Jack

28 · S. Marsi

38 · A. Vogliacco

4 · T. Barbieri

14 · T. Berti

8 · S. Lottici Tessadri

17 · A. Lickunas

10 · A. Licina

9 · M. De Luca

26 · G. Herzuah

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arezzo

4-1-4-1

14 A. Nunziante

6 A. Renzi

13 M. Gilli

4 M. Coppolaro

37 S. Righetti

24 L. Chierico

10 E. Pattarello

16 M. Sala

17 A. Ionita

7 K. Leone

9 A. Cerri

Coach · Cristian Bucchi

Substitutes

90 · A. Seculin

67 · G. M. Ferrari

5 · J. Illanes

32 · A. Cagnano

2 · M. Mena

33 · D. Mancini

23 · M. Viviani

8 · S. M. Eklu

21 · C. Tavernelli

11 · L. Mancuso

71 · P. Cianci

30 · A. Arena

Cremonese

4-2-3-1

1 A. Fulignati

6 F. Baschirotto

15 M. Bianchetti

5 S. Luperto

3 G. Pezzella

33 A. Grassi

27 J. Vandeputte

18 M. Collocolo

2 M. Thorsby

71 S. Elia

19 M. Nasti

Coach · Fabio Pecchia

Substitutes

12 · M. Festa

22 · F. Agazzi

13 · Fellipe Jack

28 · S. Marsi

38 · A. Vogliacco

4 · T. Barbieri

14 · T. Berti

8 · S. Lottici Tessadri

17 · A. Lickunas

10 · A. Licina

9 · M. De Luca

26 · G. Herzuah

Our number · cremonese winPublished 10 Oct 18:40

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Cremonese a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cremonese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arezzo win	32%	28%	+3
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Cremonese win	41%	42%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	43%	+8
Both teams to score	56%	50%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	69%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	23%	+6
Arezzo or draw	59%	58%	+1
Arezzo clean sheet	24%	–	–
Cremonese clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 7.9 8.6 7.0 3.4 1 7.2 13.1 8.7 4.3 2 5.2 7.5 5.5 2.7 3 2.2 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arezzo down, Cremonese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 Serie B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Arezzo at home: 1.50 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 2). Cremonese away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Arezzo, 1.46 for Cremonese. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie B

AREZZO

WLLWL2–1 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 1–4

CREMONESE

WLLWDD3–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	5	+5	13
2	Sudtirol	5	+6	11
3	Mantova	5	+5	11
4	Avellino	6	+4	10
5	Modena	5	+4	10
6	Ascoli	5	+3	10
7	Hellas Verona	5	+3	7
8	Cesena	5	+1	7
9	Benevento	5	+1	7
10	Pisa	5	0	7
11	Padova	5	−1	7
12	Empoli	5	−2	6
13	Arezzo	5	−7	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	+1	5
15	Cremonese	5	−2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	−3	5
17	Juve Stabia	5	−3	5
18	Sampdoria	6	−7	4
19	Catanzaro	5	−4	3
20	Carrarese	5	−4	1