Arezzo v Benevento prediction · Serie B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

Arezzo 0–3 Benevento AREZZO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arezzo win~~36%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.647

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.524

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arezzo win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arezzo 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–34
1′KICK-OFF Arezzo v Benevento
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Arezzo win 34%)
42′8 shots for Benevento, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 31–40–29
45′SECOND HALF Arezzo 0–0 Benevento
46′HALF-TIME Arezzo 0–0 Benevento
49′We said Arezzo at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arezzo 0–1 Benevento
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Arezzo win: 36% at kick-off, 8% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Benevento win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 43%)
52′Benevento ahead on 52′ through Antonis Siatounis. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
53′Benevento ahead on 49′ through Antonis Siatounis. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Arezzo win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Pietro Beruatto · Benevento
63′We said Arezzo at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arezzo · On: Andrea Cagnano · Off: Samuele Righetti
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arezzo · On: Emiliano Pattarello · Off: Alessandro Arena
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Arezzo · On: Pietro Cianci · Off: Alberto Cerri
67′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
67′David Okereke scores for Benevento on 66′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Arezzo 0–2 Benevento
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Benevento · On: G. Mignani · Off: Francesco Salvemini
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Benevento · On: Leonardo Sernicola · Off: Pietro Beruatto
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Benevento · On: Davide Lamesta · Off: Luigi Cherubini
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Benevento · On: Antonio prisco · Off: Christian Kouan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arezzo · On: Shaka Mawuli Eklu · Off: Artur Ioniță
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arezzo · On: Leonardo Mancuso · Off: Luca Chierico
86′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Benevento · On: Raffaele Romano · Off: Edoardo·Pierozzi
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Arezzo 0–3 Benevento
88′87′: G. Mignani on the scoresheet for Benevento, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Stefano Scognamillo · Benevento
94′0–3 at the end. Our 36% on Arezzo misses, and the record keeps it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Arezzo 0–3 Benevento
FTArezzo 0–3 Benevento · Arezzo win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Arezzo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Arezzo 36%, draw 29%, Benevento 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Arezzo v BeneventoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arezzo win36%

Draw29%

Benevento win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStadio Città di Arezzo

RefereeFrancesco Fourneau

Line-ups

Arezzo

4-1-4-1

Benevento

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arezzo

Benevento

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie B

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arezzo

4-1-4-1

14 A. Nunziante

6 A. Renzi

13 M. Gilli

4 M. Coppolaro

37 S. Righetti

24 L. Chierico

30 A. Arena

16 Mattia Sala

17 A. Ioniţă

21 C. Tavernelli

9 A. Cerri

Coach · C. Bucchi

Substitutes

32 · A. Cagnano

71 · P. Cianci

8 · S. Mawuli

67 · Gianmarco Ferrari

78 · Gennaro Iaccarino

7 · K. Leone

11 · L. Mancuso

47 · A. Manes

2 · M. Mena

10 · E. Pattarello

90 · A. Seculin

33 · D. Mancini

Benevento

3-4-3

26 G. Vannucchi

14 S. Scognamillo

15 C. Dalle Mura

20 P. Beruatto

77 E. Pierozzi

8 M. Maita

28 C. Kouan

6 A. Siatounis

10 L. Cherubini

9 F. Salvemini

29 D. Okereke

Coach · Antonio Floro Flores

Substitutes

22 · M. Esposito

11 · D. Lamesta

16 · Mattia Mannini

32 · G. Mignani

4 · A. Prisco

25 · R. Romano

23 · P. Saio

17 · L. Sernicola

18 · P. Simonetti

93 · M. Tumminello

90 · S. Verdi

5 · L. Caldirola

Our number · arezzo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

36% The market29%

Us36%

~~Market~~29%

We make Arezzo a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arezzo v Benevento~~1.30 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~9 v 8

~~The market · Arezzo win~~29% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arezzo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arezzo win	36%	29%	+7
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Benevento win	34%	41%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Arezzo or draw	66%	59%	+7
Arezzo clean sheet	29%	–	–
Benevento clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.3 8.5 6.1 2.6 1 8.9 13.7 7.8 3.3 2 6.6 8.1 5.1 2.1 3 2.9 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arezzo down, Benevento across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,020 Serie B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arezzo at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Benevento away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Arezzo, 1.26 for Benevento. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–0 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie B this season · since 30 Aug

AREZZO

LLWLDW2–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–1

BENEVENTO

DLWWWD1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palermo	7	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	+5	13
4	Modena	7	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	7	+3	12
6	Ascoli	7	+3	12
7	Avellino	7	+4	11
8	Benevento	7	+3	11
9	Arezzo	7	−6	10
10	Virtus Entella	7	+2	9
11	Vicenza Virtus	8	−4	9
12	Hellas Verona	7	+2	8
13	Cesena	7	−1	8
14	Carrarese	7	−1	7
15	Empoli	8	−6	7
16	Padova	7	−4	7
17	Cremonese	7	−4	6
18	Juve Stabia	7	0	5
19	Sampdoria	7	−8	4
20	Catanzaro	7	−6	4