Venezia v Napoli prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Venezia 1–0 Napoli NAPOLI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Napoli win~~60%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.108

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.986

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Napoli win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Napoli was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 17–23–60
1′KICK-OFF Venezia v Napoli
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Napoli win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
39′9 shots for Napoli, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 17–35–49
40′We said Napoli at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 17–35–48
45′HALF-TIME Venezia 0–0 Napoli
45′SECOND HALF Venezia 0–0 Napoli
49′Akor Adams scores for Venezia on 49′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 56–29–15
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Venezia 1–0 Napoli · Akor Adams
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Napoli win: 60% at kick-off, 15% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Venezia win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Napoli win 15%)
50′We said Napoli at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 57–29–15
50′9 shots for Napoli, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 57–29–15
51′We said Napoli at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 57–28–14
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Napoli · On: Rasmus Hojlund · Off: Lorenzo Lucca
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Napoli · On: Kevin De Bruyne · Off: Billy Gilmour
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Napoli · On: Alisson Santos · Off: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Napoli win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
61′We said Napoli at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 64–27–9
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Toma Bašić · Venezia
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Venezia · On: Albion Rrahmani · Off: John Yeboah
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Napoli · On: Matteo Politano · Off: Sam Beukema
66′Napoli have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 68–25–7
69′Napoli have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 71–24–6
69′PENALTY MISSED · 68' Kevin De Bruyne · Napoli
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Venezia · On: Pasquale Mazzocchi · Off: Ridgeciano Haps
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Venezia · On: Thorir Johann Helgason · Off: Toma Bašić
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Venezia · On: Joël Schingtienne · Off: Matias Moreno
73′We said Napoli at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Enrique Pérez Muñoz · Venezia
82′Napoli have had 20 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Venezia · On: Lamine Fanne · Off: Simon Sohm
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Napoli · On: Mathias Olivera · Off: Leonardo Spinazzola
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Napoli win: 60% at kick-off, under 1% now
89′25 shots for Napoli, 9 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–0
92′Napoli have had 28 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
FTFULL TIME Venezia 1–0 Napoli
FTVenezia 1–0 Napoli · Napoli win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Napoli are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Venezia 17%, draw 23%, Napoli 60%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Venezia v NapoliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Venezia win17%

Draw23%

Napoli win60%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadio Pier Luigi Penzo

RefereeJuan Luca Sacchi

Line-ups

Venezia

3-5-2

Napoli

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Venezia

Napoli

5Days since last match4

Last match: 12 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Napoli	6	+4	10
20	Venezia	6	−11	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A line-ups: Venezia vs. NapoliFootball Italia · 17 Oct 13:04 · Venezia, Napoli Serie A Liveblog: Venezia-Napoli, Bologna-Inter, Roma-GenoaFootball Italia · 17 Oct 13:03 · Venezia, Napoli, Bologna, Inter, AS Roma, Genoa Serie A | Venezia vs. Napoli: Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 17 Oct 09:30 · Venezia, Napoli Official: Anguissa returns as Allegri confirms 22-man Napoli squad for VeneziaFootball Italia · 16 Oct 17:08 · Napoli, Venezia

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Venezia

3-5-2

1 F. Stankovic

25 R. Halhal

2 M. Moreno

15 Juan Jesus

18 A. Hainaut

71 K. Perez

19 S. Sohm

26 T. Basic

5 R. Haps

10 J. Yeboah

45 A. Adams

Coach · Davide Nicola

Substitutes

96 · L. Montipo

70 · P. Mazzocchi

16 · R. Mohammed

20 · R. Sagrado

3 · J. Schingtienne

95 · A. Gomes

21 · T. J. Helgason

30 · M. Dagasso

55 · S. Panada

8 · L. Fanne

36 · L. Berardi

29 · L. Lauberbach

56 · K. Lisman

77 · T. Fernandez

7 · A. Rrahmani

Napoli

3-4-2-1

1 A. Meret

31 S. Beukema

13 A. Rrahmani

5 B. Badiashile

22 G. Di Lorenzo

6 B. Gilmour

68 S. Lobotka

37 L. Spinazzola

23 Giovane

8 S. McTominay

20 L. Lucca

Coach · Massimiliano Allegri

Substitutes

32 · V. Milinkovic-Savic

14 · N. Contini

17 · M. Olivera

35 · L. Marianucci

16 · R. Marin

11 · K. De Bruyne

99 · F. Anguissa

21 · M. Politano

19 · R. Hojlund

70 · N. Lang

27 · Alisson Santos

Our number · napoli winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market55%

Us60%

~~Market~~55%

We make Napoli a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Venezia v Napoli~~0.83 – 1.81

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 10~~20 v 9

~~The market · Napoli win~~55% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Napoli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Venezia win	17%	21%	−4
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Napoli win	60%	55%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	58%	−9
Both teams to score	47%	57%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Venezia or draw	40%	45%	−5
Venezia clean sheet	17%	–	–
Napoli clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.7 12.7 11.7 7.1 3.3 1 5.7 10.8 9.4 5.7 2.6 2 2.5 4.4 3.9 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Venezia down, Napoli across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,962 Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Venezia at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Napoli away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Venezia, 1.81 for Napoli. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VEN 0–0 NAP · NAP 1–0 VEN · VEN 0–2 NAP · NAP 2–0 VEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug

VENEZIA

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 0–2 · 1–3

NAPOLI

WLLWDW2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	Lazio	6	+7	16
3	AS Roma	6	+11	14
4	Frosinone	7	+4	13
5	Cagliari	6	+3	13
6	AC Milan	6	+6	12
7	Juventus	6	+4	11
8	Como	6	+3	11
9	Napoli	6	+4	10
10	Atalanta	6	0	9
11	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
12	Torino	6	−2	7
13	Lecce	6	−6	6
14	Bologna	6	−2	5
15	Udinese	6	−4	4
16	Monza	6	−6	4
17	Genoa	6	−6	4
18	Parma	6	−6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
20	Venezia	6	−11	0