Udinese v Lecce prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Udinese 0–3 Lecce UDINESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Udinese win~~49%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.902

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.964

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Udinese win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Udinese 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–23
1′KICK-OFF Udinese v Lecce
11′We said Udinese at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–25–53
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Udinese 0–1 Lecce
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Udinese win: 49% at kick-off, 21% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Lecce win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Udinese win 21%)
12′Lecce ahead on 11′ through Kialonda Gaspar. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–25–53
19′We said Udinese at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Udinese win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 16–26–58
33′We said Udinese at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Udinese 0–2 Lecce
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Udinese win: 49% at kick-off, 4% now
34′Konan N'Dri scores for Lecce on 33′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–85
42′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Lecce · On: Mohamed Kaba · Off: Lassana Coulibaly
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Hassane Kamara · Udinese
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Udinese · On: Matteo Palma · Off: David Alaba
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Udinese · On: Juan Arizala · Off: Hassane Kamara
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Udinese · On: Jakub Piotrowski · Off: Oier Zarraga
45′SECOND HALF Udinese 0–2 Lecce
47′HALF-TIME Udinese 0–2 Lecce
59′We said Udinese at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–24–70
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Udinese 1–2 Lecce
60′59′: Jakub Piotrowski on the scoresheet for Udinese, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–23–70
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–23–70
63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Udinese
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Udinese · On: Unai Gómez · Off: Giorgi Chakvetadze
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Udinese · On: Alessandro Zanoli · Off: Enzo Ebosse
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Lecce · On: Paco Esteban · Off: Willem Geubbels
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Lecce · On: Santiago Pierotti · Off: Amar Fatah
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Lecce · On: Joel Almada Monteiro · Off: Konan N'Dri
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Lecce · On: Jamil Siebert · Off: Youssef Maleh
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Udinese 0–3 Lecce
86′86′: Jamil Siebert on the scoresheet for Lecce, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
93′0–3 at the end. Our 49% on Udinese misses, and the record keeps it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Udinese 0–3 Lecce
FTUdinese 0–3 Lecce · Udinese win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Udinese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Udinese 49%, draw 28%, Lecce 23%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Udinese v LecceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Udinese win49%

Draw28%

Lecce win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueBluenergy Stadium

RefereeMarco Guida

Line-ups

Udinese

3-4-2-1

Lecce

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Udinese

Lecce

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Lecce	6	−6	6
15	Udinese	6	−4	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Amorim to skip pre-match press conferences for Milan games against Atalanta and UdineseFootball Italia · 17 Oct 12:15 · AC Milan, Atalanta, Udinese

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Udinese

3-4-2-1

40 M. Okoye

28 O. Solet

5 D. Alaba

77 E. Ebosse

23 M. Vojvoda

8 J. Karlstrom

6 O. Zarraga

11 H. Kamara

32 J. Ekkelenkamp

30 G. Chakvetadze

9 K. Davis

Coach · Kosta Runjaic

Substitutes

93 · D. Padelli

41 · B. Mrozek

27 · C. Kabasele

59 · A. Zanoli

14 · J. Abankwah

13 · N. Bertola

16 · M. Palma

4 · S. Lovric

24 · J. Piotrowski

38 · L. Miller

46 · U. Gomez

91 · L. Jovanovic

20 · J. Arizala

45 · G. Vinciati

Lecce

4-3-3

30 W. Falcone

17 D. Veiga

4 K. Gaspar

44 Tiago Gabriel

25 A. Gallo

29 L. Coulibaly

79 O. Ngom

14 Y. Maleh

11 K. Ndri

69 W. Geubbels

7 A. Fatah

Coach · Eusebio Di Francesco

Substitutes

1 · M. Bleve

32 · A. Borbei

5 · J. Siebert

8 · S. Fofana

2 · A. Dembele

31 · E. Scott

3 · C. Ndaba

18 · G. Jean

16 · O. Gandelman

28 · O. Gorter

99 · J. Monteiro

77 · M. Kaba

50 · S. Pierotti

9 · N. Stulic

22 · P. Esteban

Our number · udinese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market52%

Us49%

~~Market~~52%

We make Udinese a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Udinese v Lecce~~1.42 – 0.89

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~15 v 13

~~The market · Udinese win~~52% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Udinese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Udinese win	49%	52%	−3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Lecce win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Udinese or draw	77%	79%	−2
Udinese clean sheet	41%	–	–
Lecce clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.5 8.6 4.0 1 13.8 12.7 5.5 2 10.0 8.7 3.9 3 4.7 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Udinese down, Lecce across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,965 Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Udinese at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lecce away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Udinese, 0.89 for Lecce. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LEC 2–1 UDI · UDI 3–2 LEC · LEC 0–1 UDI · UDI 1–0 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug

UDINESE

DWLLLL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–5 · 0–1 · 1–2

LECCE

WLLWLL2–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	AS Roma	7	+13	17
3	Lazio	6	+7	16
4	Frosinone	7	+4	13
5	Cagliari	6	+3	13
6	AC Milan	6	+6	12
7	Juventus	6	+4	11
8	Como	6	+3	11
9	Napoli	7	+3	10
10	Atalanta	6	0	9
11	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
12	Torino	6	−2	7
13	Lecce	6	−6	6
14	Bologna	7	−4	5
15	Udinese	6	−4	4
16	Monza	6	−6	4
17	Parma	6	−6	4
18	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
19	Genoa	7	−8	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3