Sassuolo v Lazio prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SassuoloDrawLazio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lazio 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lazio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sassuolo 29%, draw 26%, Lazio 45%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sassuolo v LazioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sassuolo win29%

Draw26%

Lazio win45%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sassuolo

Lazio

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lazio	7	+10	19
14	Sassuolo	8	−4	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Gattuso: ‘Lazio frankly don’t belong up there’ at top of Serie A tableFootball Italia · 24 Oct 22:33 · Lazio Serie A | Lazio 2-1 Parma: Eagles keep flying high in top spotFootball Italia · 24 Oct 21:41 · Lazio, Parma Serie A | Como 2-0 Sassuolo: Douvikas at the double for impressive LarianiFootball Italia · 24 Oct 15:55 · Como, Sassuolo Serie A Liveblog: Napoli-Roma, Lazio-Parma, Como-Sassuolo, Cagliari-BolognaFootball Italia · 24 Oct 13:01 · Napoli, AS Roma, Lazio, Parma, Como, Sassuolo, Cagliari, Bologna

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lazio winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make Lazio a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sassuolo v Lazio~~1.18 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 19~~14 v 2

~~The market · Lazio win~~39% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lazio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sassuolo win	29%	33%	−4
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Lazio win	45%	39%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Sassuolo or draw	55%	61%	−6
Sassuolo clean sheet	22%	–	–
Lazio clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 9.8 7.8 4.0 1 7.6 12.1 9.1 4.7 2 4.6 7.0 5.3 2.8 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sassuolo down, Lazio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,976 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sassuolo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lazio away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Sassuolo, 1.54 for Lazio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LAZ 2–1 SAS · SAS 1–0 LAZ · LAZ 1–1 SAS · SAS 0–2 LAZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

SASSUOLO

DWLDLL2–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 0–2

LAZIO

WDWWWW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	+13	17
4	Como	8	+7	17
5	AC Milan	7	+7	15
6	Frosinone	7	+4	13
7	Torino	8	+2	13
8	Cagliari	8	−3	13
9	Juventus	7	+1	11
10	Napoli	7	+3	10
11	Atalanta	7	−1	9
12	Lecce	7	−3	9
13	Bologna	8	−2	8
14	Sassuolo	8	−4	8
15	Monza	8	−3	7
16	Udinese	7	−7	4
17	Genoa	7	−8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
19	Parma	7	−9	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3