Sassuolo v AC Milan prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan AC MILAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AC Milan win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.891

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.877

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AC Milan win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AC Milan 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 26–24–50
48′We said AC Milan at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 23–38–38
50′We said AC Milan at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 23–40–38
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–44–35
61′We said AC Milan at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 20–48–32
63′63′ and it is 0–1: Adrien Rabiot on the scoresheet for AC Milan. 0–1 · 3–16–81
67′We said AC Milan at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 18–54–28
69′Sassuolo ahead on 68′ through Cas Odenthal. 1–1. 1–1 · 17–57–26
69′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 17–57–26
78′Sassuolo ahead on 68′ through Cas Odenthal. 1–1. 1–1 · 12–70–18
83′We said AC Milan at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 8–81–12
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 12% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 12% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AC Milan · On: Omari Hutchinson · Off: Samuel Chukwueze
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 12% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
86′We said AC Milan at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 5–88–7
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 12% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Gonçalo Ramos · AC Milan
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Sassuolo 2–1 AC Milan · Cas Odenthal
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
89′We said AC Milan at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 1–97–2
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 2% now
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Strahinja Pavlovic · AC Milan
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 0% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' AC Milan win: 50% at kick-off, 0% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Kristian Thorstvedt · Sassuolo
FTFULL TIME Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan
FTSassuolo 1–1 AC Milan · AC Milan win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sassuolo win26%

Draw24%

AC Milan win50%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueMapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

RefereeFrancesco Fourneau

Line-ups

Sassuolo

4-3-3

AC Milan

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sassuolo

AC Milan

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Amorim: ‘Milan system doesn’t matter as much as being aggressive’Football Italia · 46 min ago · AC Milan, Sassuolo Serie A: Sassuolo vs. Milan – Confirmed line-upsFootball Italia · 1 hour ago · Sassuolo, AC Milan Serie A Liveblog including Como-Roma, Sassuolo-Milan, Cagliari-JuventusFootball Italia · 6 hours ago · Como, Sassuolo, AC Milan, Cagliari, Juventus Serie A: Sassuolo vs. Milan – probable line-ups, where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 8 hours ago · Sassuolo, AC Milan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sassuolo

4-3-3

49 A. Muric

20 I. Van der Brempt

15 D. Caleta-Car

16 F. Leysen

3 J. Doig

17 V. Adzic

18 N. Matic

50 D. Bakola

10 D. Berardi

94 S. Esposito

45 A. Lauriente

Coach · Alberto Aquilani

Substitutes

80 · S. Turati

12 · G. Satalino

6 · S. Walukiewicz

26 · C. Odenthal

5 · F. Cande

33 · R. Obrador

46 · S. Cinquegrano

8 · A. Ghion

7 · C. Volpato

35 · L. Lipani

55 · I. Sulemana

42 · K. Thorstvedt

19 · L. Skjellerup

25 · B. Dominguez

9 · K. Bowie

AC Milan

4-4-2

16 M. Maignan

34 M. Gila

46 M. Gabbia

31 S. Pavlovic

2 P. Estupinan

21 S. Chukwueze

80 Y. Musah

12 A. Rabiot

22 D. Moreira

11 C. Pulisic

9 G. Ramos

Coach · Ruben Amorim

Substitutes

41 · L. P. Bouyer

96 · L. Torriani

23 · F. Tomori

33 · D. Bartesaghi

5 · K. De Winter

13 · S. Diawara

14 · L. Modric

8 · R. Loftus-Cheek

42 · F. Terracciano

30 · A. Jashari

28 · C. Comotto

70 · A. Cisse

73 · F. Camarda

20 · O. Hutchinson

Our number · ac milan winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make AC Milan a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ac milan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sassuolo win	26%	23%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
AC Milan win	50%	52%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Sassuolo or draw	50%	48%	+2
Sassuolo clean sheet	18%	–	–
AC Milan clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 9.2 8.1 4.6 2.0 1 6.3 11.3 9.4 5.4 2.4 2 3.9 6.5 5.6 3.2 3 2.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sassuolo down, AC Milan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,954 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.38 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sassuolo at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AC Milan away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Sassuolo, 1.72 for AC Milan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAS 2–0 ACM · ACM 2–2 SAS · SAS 3–3 ACM · ACM 1–0 SAS

Form · last six in Serie A

SASSUOLO

LLWDWL0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

AC MILAN

LWWDDW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	AS Roma	5	+11	13
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
6	Napoli	6	+4	10
7	Juventus	5	+4	10
8	Como	5	+3	10
9	Frosinone	6	+2	10
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
13	Udinese	5	−3	4
14	Torino	5	−3	4
15	Monza	5	−4	4
16	Genoa	6	−6	4
17	Parma	6	−6	4
18	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
19	Bologna	5	−3	2
20	Venezia	5	−9	0