Parma v Torino prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Parma 0–3 Torino TORINO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torino win~~36%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.561

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torino win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Torino was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
1′KICK-OFF Parma v Torino
4′We published Torino at 36%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Parma 0–1 Torino
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Torino win: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
6′Torino score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–67
23′We published Torino at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Parma 0–2 Torino
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Torino win: 36% at kick-off, 90% now
25′Torino ahead on 24′ through Che Adams. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Diego Carlos · Parma
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Ardian Ismajli · Torino
45′SECOND HALF Parma 0–2 Torino
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Parma · On: Dominik Drobnic · Off: Diego Carlos
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Parma · On: Simone Lontani · Off: Giovanni Fabbian
46′HALF-TIME Parma 0–2 Torino
51′We published Torino at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
53′13 shots for Parma, 8 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Sascha Britschgi · Parma
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Torino win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torino · On: Sandro Kulenović · Off: Che Adams
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torino · On: Gvidas Gineitis · Off: Rolando Mandragora
65′Parma have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
67′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
69′We published Torino at 36%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Parma 0–3 Torino
70′Giovanni Simeone scores for Torino on 69′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Parma · On: Matija Frigan · Off: El Bilal Toure
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Parma · On: Djibril Diallo · Off: Sascha Britschgi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Torino · On: Zakaria Aboukhlal · Off: Rafik Belghali
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Torino · On: Cesare Casadei · Off: Nikola Vlašić
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Pietro Comuzzo · Torino
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Parma 1–3 Torino
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Parma · On: Christian Ordóñez · Off: Adrián Bernabé García
82′81′: Matija Frigan on the scoresheet for Parma, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Parma
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Torino · On: Duván Zapata · Off: Giovanni Simeone
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Mariano Troilo · Parma
93′Parma have had 24 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Parma 0–3 Torino
FTParma 0–3 Torino · Torino win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Torino just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Parma 34%, draw 30%, Torino 36%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Parma v TorinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Parma win34%

Draw30%

Torino win36%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueEnnio Tardini

RefereeGiovanni Ayroldi

Line-ups

Parma

3-4-2-1

Torino

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parma

Torino

9Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 12 Oct · the Italian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Torino	6	−2	7
16	Parma	6	−6	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A official line-ups: Parma vs. TorinoFootball Italia · 19 Oct 18:52 · Parma, Torino

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Parma

3-4-2-1

40 E. Corvi

34 Diego Carlos

37 M. Troilo

15 E. Del Prato

27 S. Britschgi

10 Adrián Bernabé

16 M. Keita

14 E. Valeri

80 G. Fabbian

19 E. Touré

9 D. Romero

Coach · A. Gilardino

Substitutes

8 · B. Cremaschi

29 · F. Carboni

30 · G. Daffara

25 · T. De Martis

72 · D. Drobnic

20 · M. Frigan

22 · S. Ghidotti

47 · Abdou Konate

76 · S. Lontani

3 · A. N'Diaye

32 · C. Ordoñez

4 · V. Sierro

70 · D. Diallo

Torino

3-4-1-2

20 Lucas Perri

23 Saúl Coco

44 A. Ismajli

15 P. Comuzzo

45 R. Belghali

8 R. Mandragora

21 Daniel Bragança

77 A. Cacciamani

10 N. Vlašić

18 G. Simeone

19 C. Adams

Coach · Ignazio Abate

Substitutes

22 · C. Casadei

5 · E. Cömert

28 · K. Fitz-Jim

66 · G. Gineitis

17 · S. Kulenović

26 · D. Mascardi

11 · G. Oristanio

2 · N. Patterson

9 · P. Pellegri

13 · R. Rodríguez

76 · L. Siviero

91 · D. Zapata

3 · C. Biraghi

7 · Z. Aboukhlal

Our number · torino winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

36% The market39%

Us36%

~~Market~~39%

We make Torino a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parma v Torino~~1.07 – 1.12

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~16 v 13

~~The market · Torino win~~39% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Torino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parma win	34%	30%	+4
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Torino win	36%	39%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	41%	−3
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Parma or draw	64%	61%	+3
Parma clean sheet	33%	–	–
Torino clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.6 12.2 7.0 2.6 1 11.6 13.6 7.4 2.8 2 6.4 7.1 4.0 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parma down, Torino across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,969 Serie A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Parma at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Torino away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Parma, 1.12 for Torino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TOR 4–1 PAR · PAR 2–1 TOR · PAR 2–2 TOR · TOR 0–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug

PARMA

LLDLWL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

TORINO

LLWLDW1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	+7	15
5	Como	7	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	+4	13
7	Cagliari	6	+3	13
8	Juventus	7	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	+3	10
10	Atalanta	7	−1	9
11	Lecce	7	−3	9
12	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
13	Torino	6	−2	7
14	Bologna	7	−4	5
15	Monza	6	−6	4
16	Parma	6	−6	4
17	Udinese	7	−7	4
18	Genoa	7	−8	4
19	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3