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Napoli v Frosinone

Napoli

3–0Full time

Frosinone

Serie A · SAT 10 OCT · Maradona Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Napoli 3–0 Frosinone NAPOLI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Napoli win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.252

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Napoli win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Napoli was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Napoli v Frosinone
3′Much as we predicted: Napoli was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
26′PENALTY MISSED · 27' Rasmus Hojlund · Napoli
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Napoli 1–0 Frosinone
29′Kevin De Bruyne scores for Napoli on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–5
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Napoli 1–0 Frosinone · Kevin De Bruyne
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Napoli win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Napoli win: 59% at kick-off, 56% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Napoli win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Napoli win: 59% at kick-off, 56% now
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Napoli 2–0 Frosinone · Kevin De Bruyne
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Napoli win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Napoli win: 59% at kick-off, 56% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Napoli 2–0 Frosinone · Noa Lang
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Napoli win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
45′SECOND HALF Napoli 2–0 Frosinone
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Frosinone · On: Aleksa Terzić · Off: Patrizio Masini Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Napoli · On: Scott McTominay · Off: David Neres Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Napoli · On: Lorenzo Lucca · Off: Rasmus Hojlund Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Frosinone · On: Seydou Fini · Off: Farès Ghedjemis Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Frosinone · On: Tomas Bobcek · Off: Antonio Raimondo Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Napoli · On: Billy Gilmour · Off: Stanislav Lobotka Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Napoli · On: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento · Off: Noa Lang Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Frosinone · On: Matteo Cichella · Off: Gabriele Bracaglia Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Amir Rrahmani · Napoli
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Napoli · On: Matteo Politano · Off: Kevin De Bruyne Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Frosinone · On: Alessio Zerbin · Off: Romano Schmid Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Benoît Badiashile · Napoli
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Napoli 3–0 Frosinone · Noa Lang
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Napoli 3–0 Frosinone · Kevin De Bruyne
FTFULL TIME Napoli 3–0 Frosinone
FTNapoli 3–0 Frosinone · Napoli win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Napoli win59%

Draw23%

Frosinone win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Allegri: ‘De Bruyne can do well in deeper role’ with Napoli 3-4-3 formationFootball Italia · 10 min ago · Napoli, Frosinone Serie A official line-ups: Napoli vs. FrosinoneFootball Italia · 45 min ago · Napoli, Frosinone Man Utd transfer blunder exposed as Real Madrid enquiry revealed for £25m starMirror Football · 4 hours ago · Manchester United, Real Madrid, Napoli

Serie A Liveblog: Napoli-Frosinone, Inter-Parma, Genoa-FiorentinaFootball Italia · 6 hours ago · Napoli, Frosinone, Inter

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Maradona Stadium

Referee · Ermanno Feliciani

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Napoli

3-4-2-1

1 A. Meret

16 R. Marin

13 A. Rrahmani

5 B. Badiashile

22 G. Di Lorenzo

11 K. De Bruyne

68 S. Lobotka

37 L. Spinazzola

7 David Neres

70 N. Lang

19 R. Hojlund

Coach · Massimiliano Allegri

Substitutes

32 · V. Milinkovic-Savic

14 · N. Contini

31 · S. Beukema

35 · L. Marianucci

8 · S. McTominay

6 · B. Gilmour

21 · M. Politano

23 · Giovane

20 · L. Lucca

36 · M. Pereyra

Frosinone

4-2-3-1

22 L. Palmisani

20 A. Oyono

3 G. Calvani

2 G. Cittadini

79 G. Bracaglia

73 P. Masini

14 G. Calo

7 F. Ghedjemis

10 R. Schmid

17 G. Kvernadze

9 A. Raimondo

Coach · Massimiliano Alvini

Substitutes

12 · M. Pisseri

91 · S. Desplanches

71 · A. Terzic

25 · K. Akpoguma

30 · I. Monterisi

90 · E. Tchato

5 · W. Amey

74 · O. Fayed

70 · L. Hasa

16 · M. Cichella

89 · T. Bobcek

40 · S. Fini

24 · A. Zerbin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Napoli

3-4-2-1

1 A. Meret

16 R. Marin

13 A. Rrahmani

5 B. Badiashile

22 G. Di Lorenzo

11 K. De Bruyne

68 S. Lobotka

37 L. Spinazzola

7 David Neres

70 N. Lang

19 R. Hojlund

Coach · Massimiliano Allegri

Substitutes

32 · V. Milinkovic-Savic

14 · N. Contini

31 · S. Beukema

35 · L. Marianucci

8 · S. McTominay

6 · B. Gilmour

21 · M. Politano

23 · Giovane

20 · L. Lucca

36 · M. Pereyra

Frosinone

4-2-3-1

22 L. Palmisani

20 A. Oyono

3 G. Calvani

2 G. Cittadini

79 G. Bracaglia

73 P. Masini

14 G. Calo

7 F. Ghedjemis

10 R. Schmid

17 G. Kvernadze

9 A. Raimondo

Coach · Massimiliano Alvini

Substitutes

12 · M. Pisseri

91 · S. Desplanches

71 · A. Terzic

25 · K. Akpoguma

30 · I. Monterisi

90 · E. Tchato

5 · W. Amey

74 · O. Fayed

70 · L. Hasa

16 · M. Cichella

89 · T. Bobcek

40 · S. Fini

24 · A. Zerbin

Our number · napoli winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make Napoli a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · napoli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Napoli win	59%	65%	−6
Draw	23%	20%	+2
Frosinone win	18%	15%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	66%	−13
Both teams to score	50%	60%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	77%	84%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	31%	45%	−14
Napoli or draw	82%	85%	−3
Napoli clean sheet	40%	–	–
Frosinone clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 6.6 5.6 2.7 1 11.2 10.6 4.9 2 10.5 9.5 4.4 3 6.6 5.9 2.7 4 3.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Napoli down, Frosinone across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,951 Serie A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Napoli at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Frosinone away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Napoli, 0.92 for Frosinone. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAP 2–2 FRO · FRO 1–3 NAP

Form · last six in Serie A

NAPOLI

WWLLWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

FROSINONE

LLWWDW0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Roma	5	+11	13
2	Inter	5	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	+4	10
8	Como	5	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
13	Udinese	5	−3	4
14	Torino	5	−3	4
15	Parma	5	−3	4
16	Monza	5	−4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	−6	4
18	Bologna	5	−3	2
19	Genoa	5	−7	1
20	Venezia	5	−9	0