Napoli v AS Roma

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Napoli win at 37%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Napoli was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
3. 1′KICK-OFF Napoli v AS Roma
4. 5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Rafael Marin Zamora · Napoli
5. 27′We published Napoli at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Napoli 1–0 AS Roma
7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
8. 28′Napoli ahead on 28′ through Frank Anguissa. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
10. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Bryan Cristante · AS Roma
11. 31′We published Napoli at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
12. 45′SECOND HALF Napoli 1–0 AS Roma
13. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Devyne Rensch · AS Roma
14. 46′HALF-TIME Napoli 1–0 AS Roma
15. 48′We published Napoli at 37%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
16. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Napoli 2–0 AS Roma
17. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 94% now
18. 50′Scott McTominay scores for Napoli on 48′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
19. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Napoli · On: Sam Beukema · Off: Benoît Badiashile
20. 53′We published Napoli at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
21. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' AS Roma · On: Nahuel Molina · Off: Devyne Rensch
22. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' AS Roma · On: Leonardo Balerdi · Off: Mario Hermoso
23. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' AS Roma · On: Santiago Thomas Castro · Off: Niccolò Pisilli
24. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Leonardo Balerdi · AS Roma
25. 63′15 shots for AS Roma, 10 the other way, and they still trail 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
26. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Napoli · On: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento · Off: Matteo Politano
28. 69′AS Roma have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
29. 69′We published Napoli at 37%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
30. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Napoli 2–1 AS Roma
31. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 82% now
32. 70′69′: Matias Soule on the scoresheet for AS Roma, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–2
33. 71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
34. 74′We said Napoli at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–2 · 16–69–15
35. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Napoli 2–2 AS Roma
36. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 16% now
37. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Napoli win 84%)
38. 75′AS Roma level it on 74′ through Santiago Thomas Castro. 2–2. 2–2 · 15–70–14
39. 75′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 15–70–14
40. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
41. 77′We said Napoli at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–73–13
42. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Napoli · On: Stanislav Lobotka · Off: Kevin De Bruyne
43. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Napoli · On: Antonio Vergara · Off: Noa Lang
44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Napoli · On: Leonardo Spinazzola · Off: Giovanni Di Lorenzo
45. 82′We said Napoli at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–82–9
46. 82′AS Roma have had 22 attempts to 11 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 9–82–9
47. 82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 91–8–0
48. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Napoli 3–2 AS Roma
49. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 91% now
50. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Napoli win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 82%)
51. 83′Scott McTominay scores for Napoli on 83′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 92–7–0
52. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AS Roma · On: Rodrigo Mora · Off: Donyell Malen
53. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AS Roma · On: Daniele Ghilardi · Off: Gianluca Mancini
54. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Marten de Roon · AS Roma
55. 88′6 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 5–90–5
56. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Napoli 3–3 AS Roma
57. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 5% now
58. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Napoli win 95%)
59. 89′We said Napoli at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–91–4
60. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Napoli win: 37% at kick-off, 4% now
61. 90′89′: Leonardo Balerdi on the scoresheet for AS Roma, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 4–93–4
62. 91′AS Roma have had 24 attempts to 13 and it is still 3–3. 3–3 · 3–94–3
63. 92′A red card for Napoli on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–3 · 3–95–2
64. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Massimiliano Allegri · Napoli
65. 95′Full time, 3–3. We called Napoli at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 3–3 · 0–100–0
66. FTFULL TIME Napoli 3–3 AS Roma
67. FTNapoli 3–3 AS Roma · Napoli win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.